Michigan vs. Washington prediction, odds, pick for National Championship Game
If youve ever read the old fable The Tortoise and the Hare, then you know that slow and steady wins the race.
Both Michigan and Washington will be getting a taste of something they have yet to experience this season in Monday nights College Football Playoff national championship.
The Wolverines will be facing the best quarterback theyve seen in Michael Penix Jr., who was nothing short of sensational in the semifinal against Texas. He threw for 430 yards and completed 73.6 percent of his passes with a pair of touchdowns.
Michigans secondary was able to eliminate the deep ball from Jalen Milroe in last week’s semifinal victory.
Still, Penix Jr. comes with a trio of elite receivers in projected NFL first-round pick Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and JaLynn Polk.
The three of them combined for 305 yards and both receiving touchdowns against Texas.
With that in mind, the Huskies are lining up against the best opposing defense to date.
Michigan has been steady against aerial attacks, surrendering top-10 marks in attempts, completions and yards allowed.
Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (r). USA TODAY Sports via Reuters ConPenix and Co. tore it up against Texas.
However, Michigan boasts the same strength as the Longhorns in its defensive line just better cornerbacks.
The only similar talent the Michigan secondary has been tasked with covering the last two years was Ohio States Marvin Harrison Jr. They shut him down both last season and this one with two different quarterbacks throwing him the ball.
These offenses come to blows from completely opposite ends of the spectrum.
Washington has found success by blowing opponents off the map with 37.6 points per game.
A general view of NRG stadium ahead of the College Football Playoff national championship game between the Michigan Wolverines and the Washington Huskies. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters ConMichigan deploys a wear-and-tear operation that eats up the clock with an effective run game, and the defense takes it from there.
Michigan hasnt allowed more than 24 points in a game and has surrendered the lowest yardage average in the nation at 243.1 yards per game.
So, what comes out in the wash? Considering how both sides are contending with such unfamiliar feats, several unexpected game scripts could arise.
When trying to identify which one presents a tangible betting path, I think this comes down to the advantage Michigan possesses with its run concepts.
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The Wolverines are sure to ride Blake Corum out of the backfield. He has amassed 79.3 scrimmage yards and has accounted for 25 of Michigans 36 rushing scores this season.
Where he has been especially effective is the red zone; hes helped boost the Wolverines to No. 7 overall in rushing scores from inside opponents’ 20.
Once they get the ball there, its a Huskies unit that ranks 112th defending against red-zone rushing attempts that stands in their way.
What also plays into Michigans favor here is the discipline disparity. The Wolverines have the second-least amount of penalties as opposed to the Huskies, who rank 137th.
The officiating could have a massive impact on this outcome given that ACC referee Marcus Woods is calling the game. He has thrown at least two defensive pass interferences per game this season.
This is a methodical Michigan unit that has established itself all year with excellent clock management. The Wolverines run only 63.2 plays per game yet lead college football with a 25.8-point average scoring margin.
Penix should present a strong challenge, but Im leaning toward Michigan to limit explosive plays just as it did against Milroe.
When all is said and done, the tortoise should beat the hare again as Michigan slows this thing down to cover the spread in an exhibition of opposites.
Pick: Michigan -4.5 (-115, BetMGM)
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