College football predictions: James Madison the pick despite exits

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Theres plenty of confusion surrounding Saturdays Armed Forces Bowl between James Madison and Air Force.

Curt Cignetti left JMU in late November to take the Indiana job, bringing along his coordinators and quarterback coach, and none will coach in the bowl.

Nine JMU starters are in the transfer portal, but reportedly they all plan on playing.

Its a delicate situation, and circumstances could change drastically. But if everyone is available for the Dukes, Im betting on JMU.

The handicap is simple: the Dukes boast the nations best rush defense, while Air Force relies entirely on the triple-option. I dont think the Falcons will be able to score much.

Also, Air Force fell apart down the stretch, losing its final four games behind a regressing defense the Falcons allowed 27 points per game during the streak.

Quarterback Jordan McCloud and Co. should be able to lean on defense while scoring enough to cover a short spread.

The pick: James Madison -1.5.

Las Vegas Bowl

Northwestern (+6) over Utah

Utah is a corpse. The Utes lost three of their final five to finish the year 8-4. Several important defensive players opted out or hit the portal after the team lost three other vital front-seven pieces to injury earlier.

Quarterback Cam Rising was never able to return from the severe knee injury he suffered in Utahs Rose Bowl loss to Penn State, thrusting backup Bryson Barnes into the starting role.

And top wideout Devaughn Vale opted out.

Conversely, Northwestern is flying high and uber-motivated to cap off a magical season. Many left the Wildcats for dead after the Pat Fitzgerald fiasco, but the team rallied behind David Braun, winning the final three to finish 7-5.

College_football_predictions_James_Madison_the_pick_despite_exits Northwestern coach David Braun APAnd not one player hit the portal or opted out for the bowl game.

The Wildcats finished the regular season covering five straight games, mainly because they consistently scored when crossing the opponents 40-yard line; they finished in the top 20 nationally in Finishing Drives.

The Utes finished sub-60th in Finishing Drives Allowed, which paired with the motivational angle should keep the Wildcats within the number.

Hawaii Bowl

Coastal Carolina (+10) over San Jose State

I dont mind backing Coastal here with backup quarterback Ethan Vasko. The redshirt freshman has wheels he racked up 170 rush yards against Old Dominion and that should play against a porous SJSU rush defense. The Spartans rank in the bottom 10 nationally in EPA per Rush allowed.

SJSU is also a relatively rush-heavy squad, but it wont have its starting left tackle or tight end for the bowl game, hurting the run-blocking.

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Though theyre a poor overall rush defense, the Chanticleers are an excellent tackling team, ranking in the top 15 nationally in broken-tackle rate. The Spartans wont be able to break off chunk rushes.

Moreover, a rush-heavy game script favors a double-digit dog, limiting possessions and draining the clock during extended drives.

Also, I think the Spartans are a tad discouraged and uninterested. They believe they shouldve made the Mountain West Championship game. Instead, theyre traveling to Hawaii for the second time in a month.

Last week: 2-1. Georgia Southern (L), Miami O. (W), Jacksonville State (W) 2023 season: 18-24.

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