TCU vs. Kansas State prediction: College basketball odds, pick

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The Kansas State Wildcats need a win on Saturday.

After starting the year 14-4, theyve lost four of their past five games, sinking deeper and deeper into the bubble.

Jerome Tang and Co. are officially fighting for their at-large lives, and a loss here would drive a dagger into them.

So, Im betting on the Wildcats’ best effort and Tangs best game plan against a TCU team ripe for a letdown following an easy home win over lowly West Virginia.

TCU vs. Kansas State odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
TCU	+1.5 (-110)	+102	o143.5 (-110)
Kansas State	-1.5 (-110)	-120	u143.5 (-110)

(Via FanDuel)

TCU vs. Kansas State pick

(12 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

Kansas State has two critical advantages over TCU on Saturday.

First, the Wildcats are playing like a top-15 defense, leading all Big 12 teams in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed (45%) during conference play.

Theyve been particularly effective defending the rim and preventing transition buckets.

Thats crucial against TCUs up-tempo rim-running offense.

The Horned Frogs lead the nation in fast-break points per game (20) and rank in the 95th percentile of D-I teams in paint points per game (38).

But theyre running that quick-strike attack against a Kansas State team that ranks above the 70th percentile in transition PPP allowed (.98) and at-the-rim PPP allowed (1.04).

TCU_vs_Kansas_State_prediction_College_basketball_odds_pick Kansas State Wildcats forward Will McNair Jr. (13) in the second half of a Big 12 basketball game between the Oklahoma Sooners and Kansas State Wildcats. Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesBehind rim-protecting big men Will McNair (6.6% block rate) and David NGuessan (3.2% block rate), the Wildcats can stand tall and prevent easy baskets against the nations most easy-basket-reliant offense.

Second, the Wildcats have a monster rest advantage against TCU.

Kansas State hasnt played since last Saturdays loss to BYU, while TCU won on Monday.

The extra two days of rest and prep will be paramount for a mastermind schemer like Tang and a relatively depthless roster (325th in bench minutes).

Additionally, the Octagon of Doom provides a unique home-court advantage.

Since Tang took over in Manhattan last year, the Wildcats are 16-7 ATS at home, covering 70% of the time by a three-point average margin.

This year, Kansas State boasts a +11 Net Rating at home compared to a -3 on the road. The home crowd gets this team going.

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I worry about Kansas States offense in this matchup.

The Wildcats are a 3-point-heavy offense that struggles with ball-handling issues, and the Horned Frogs force turnovers and protect the 3-point line better than almost any college basketball defense.

But TCU is a tad vulnerable against off-ball screeners (.93 PPP allowed, 11th percentile), and Kansas State heavily utilizes those sets with relatively solid efficiency (.98 PPP allowed, 67th percentile), trying to pop open the talented Tylor Perry-Cam Carter-Arthura Kaluma wing trio.

If Kansas States wings can get going on secondary actions, the Wildcats defense should carry them to a home-court victory in a must-win desperation scenario.

Im betting that happens.

TCU vs. Kansas State pick

Kansas State ML

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