St. John’s vs. UConn prediction: College basketball odds, picks, best bets for Saturday

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Big East play is the best.

Rick Pitinos Red Storm hosts Dan Hurleys defending national champions Saturday as UConn battles St. Johns at Madison Square Garden.

The Johnnies need a win. Theyve dropped four of five.

Meanwhile, Connecticut has stormed to nine straight Big East victories after losing the conference opener to Seton Hall.

I like backing Pitino in these spots as a home dog with his back against the wall. But I cant quite get there with the schematic matcup.

Instead, I think the Xs and Os point toward a lower-scoring game, where Im heading for my Duke vs. North Carolina prediction and pick.

St. Johns vs. UConn prediction

Pitino runs an amorphous matchup zone defense that could work against UConn.

The Huskies rely heavily on secondary actions to generate offense. Specifically, Hurley runs plenty of off-ball screens, hand-off sets and cutters in the half-court. Its a complex motion-based offense among the nations toughest to stop.

But a matchup zone neutralizes secondary actions, and Hurleys offense works best when his off-ball shooters can run off man-to-man screens.

Nationally, the Johnnies allow the 44th-fewest cutting possessions per game (4.7), the 34th-fewest off-ball screen possessions (2.1) and 137th-fewest hand-off possessions (3.1).

St_John_s_vs_UConn_prediction_College_basketball_odds_picks_best_bets_for_Saturday Cam Spencer drives against St. John’s in the December 2023 matchup. APThe zone denied those actions in the first meeting.

The Huskies came out with a narrow four-point home win, but they only scored 0.57 PPP on 21 possessions against the Red Storms zone, and they managed only five off-ball scren sets, three hand-off sets and 13 cut sets with below-average efficiency (0.9 PPP).

UConns been held under 70 points in only five of 21 games this year, and one was at home against Pitino.

Its also worth mentioning that UConns offensive rating drops about 15 points on the road (115) compared to at home (130) the Huskies motion doesnt travel well.

St_John_s_vs_UConn_prediction_College_basketball_odds_picks_best_bets_for_Saturday St. John’s lost to UConn, 69-65, in December 2023. APBut while I like the Johnnies defensive matchup, I dont feel the same about their offensive one.

Pitinos offense is guard-heavy, leveraging the Jordan Dingle-Daniss Jenkins backcourt in perimeter ball-screen sets. If they miss, elite big man Joel Soriano ferociously attacks the offensive glass.

Unfortunately for Dingle and Jenkins, UConns ball-screen defense is elite, especially on the perimeter. The Huskies rank in the top 50 nationally in pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP (0.66) and the top 90 overall (0.95).

Meanwhile, 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan anchors a rock-solid defensive rebounding unit, so I dont expect Soriano to grab enough second-chance opportunities to compensate for his likely inefficient backcourt.

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In the first meeting between these two, the Johnnies posted a 42.3% effective field goal percentage, their fourth-lowest mark of the season. They supplemented that with only 10 offensive rebounds, their second-fewest single-game total.

Its a tough matchup for both offenses, which played out in the first meeting, where UConn and St. Johns combined for 134 points when the total closed at 148.5.

Expect more of the same in the rematch and bet the Under.

St. John’s vs. UConn pick

The pick: Under xxx

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