South Carolina vs. Auburn prediction: College basketball odds, picks

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Somehow, the South Carolina Gamecocks are tied atop the SEC standings with a 9-2 record.

The turnaround Lamont Paris has pulled off in his second year is remarkable.

South Carolina went 4-14 in SEC play last season.

Playing in The Jungle is always challenging, and the situational spot screams Auburn.

But the schematic matchup favors South Carolina, so Im betting the Gamecocks keep it close on Wednesday night.

South Carolina vs. Auburn pick

The Tigers should be fired up back at home after a brutal road loss to Florida, and the Gamecocks are likely due for a loss after seven straight games.

So, I fully expect Auburn to pull out this all-important conference victory and stay within a game of Alabama in the SEC conference standings.&nsp;

However, I dont see the Tigers winning on Wednesday night in blowout fashion.

South Carolinas success has come from its ability to control the pace of games, turning every game into a rock-fighting grinder.

The Gamecocks rank 355th nationally and last in the SEC tempo, and all of their conference games have stayed under 68 possessions.

On offense, the Gamecocks run a methodical five-out swing motion offense that leverages a good-shooting frontcourt (center BJ Mack is a 31% 3-point shooter) to invert the floor and force opponents to defend out of position.

Theyre happy to eat up the clock in the process, boasting the 13th-longest average offensive possession length nationally (19.6 seconds).

South_Carolina_vs_Auburn_prediction_College_basketball_odds_picks South Carolina Gamecocks Forward B.J. Mack (2) shoots a free throw during the college basketball game between the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Georgia Bulldogs. Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesOn defense, the Gamecocks run a deep drop-coverage scheme that denies motion offenses and forces them into isolation and ball-screen creation.

Generally, this also forces opponents into late shot-clock attempts, as 10% of their defensive possessions end with a shot in the last four seconds of the clock (93rd percentile).

Additionally, South Carolina is among the best teams at denying transition opportunities, allowing the 12th-fewest per game nationally (8.6).

So, the Gamecocks eat up the clock on offense and defense while forcing opponents to play in the half-court.

Its incredibly difficult to cover a double-digit spread in that game script, partially explaining why the Gamecocks are 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

And I dont think Auburn can buck those trends.

Auburn runs a flex-motion offense that heavily utilizes cutters, and it doesnt have many great isolation or ball-screen creators.

So, often, the Tigers struggle to shoot late in the clock (.58 PPP, seventh percentile), which they minimize by trying to run the floor in transition (26th nationally in transition frequency).

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Thats a really bad matchup against South Carolina.

The Tigers are an elite defense, but theyre specifically an elite interior defense, ranking first nationally in 2-point shooting allowed (42%) behind Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams.

However, I think South Carolina can use its spread offense and force Auburns bigs to defend toward the perimeter and out of position.

But, ultimately, I think the Gamecocks control the pace of the game, forcing a low-possession, low-scoring game script that will make it increasingly difficult for Auburn to run away.

And I think the Gamecocks have the schematic advantages to score and defend against Auburn.

So, Ill grab the double-digit dog, even if its a tough situation.

South Carolina vs. Auburn odds

South Carolina +11.5

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