Baylor vs. Texas odds, prediction: College basketball best bet, picks Saturday

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Texas should be better.

The Longhorns have too much talent to be 1-3 in conference play with losses to West Virginia and UCF.

Max Abmas, Tyrese Hunter and Dillon Mitchell alone should carry them to a winning conference record, even if the Big 12 is a gauntlet.

Conversely, Baylor shouldnt be this good. The Bears have talent, but their early 14-3 record is buoyed by hot shooting. Their interior defense is a mess, the most concerning factor moving forward.

So, Im buying low on the Longhorns this Saturday, hoping the Horns give their best performance on Forty Acres.

Baylor vs Texas prediction

(12 p.m. ET, ESPN)

The Bears are a guard-heavy, ball-screen-heavy offense spearheaded by the elite duo of RayJ Dennis and JaKobe Watler. They run more pick-and-roll ball-handler sets than almost anyone, and theyve been uber-efficient, scoring at the rim and from the perimeter thanks to the duos 29 points per game.

However, the Horns have been relatively solid against dribble-drive penetration, ranking top-80 nationally in pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed (.69). Abmas, Hunter and Mitchell are three borderline elite perimeter ball-screen defenders who can hang with the Bear guards.

Baylor_vs__Texas_odds__prediction__College_basketball_best_bet__picks_Saturday Longhorns forward Dillon Mitchell. Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesIf you stop the Bears volcanic ball-screen sets, theyll devolve into shooters. So far, Baylor has dominated because its shooting over 40% from 3, so if the rim isnt available, the perimeter always is.

But no team can shoot that for an entire season. ShotQuality projects the Bears should be shooting closer to 36% based on the quality of attempts, as theyre scoring an unsustainable 1.44 PPP on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers, about .34 over expectation.

If Texas stops Baylors ball-screen sets, the Bears must shoot their way to a win. If looming shooting regression hits, things could get ugly.

That happened in Bayors loss to Kansas State on Tuesday. The Wildcats held Baylor to .55 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP, meaning the Bears had to fall back on 28 3-point attempts. The Regression train pulled into Waco station, and the Bears made only five from downtown (18%), generating a season-low 32.9% effective field goal percentage.

I thought Baylor's loss to KSU was unlucky, but looking over it, I'm not sure it was. They scored only .55 PNR ball-handler PPP, meaning they had to devolve into shooters, and then their serious negative shooting regression hit them hard (5-for-28). In retrospect, it was expected

— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) January 18, 2024Even worse, the Horns boast an elite rim defense, ranking top-20 nationally in near-proximity shooting allowed. The Bears might fail to produce points at all three levels.

On the other end of the court, Texas runs an interior-based offense predicated on cutters, handoffs, short-rolls and post actions.

Scott Drew runs a no-middle defensive scheme, which usually forces ball-handlers toward the sideline and baseline and keeps offenses away from the rim.

Baylor_vs__Texas_odds__prediction__College_basketball_best_bet__picks_Saturday RayJ Dennis #10 of the Baylor Bears. Getty ImagesUnfortunately, the Bears defense has significantly regressed. They cant stop the dribble, allowing 33 paint points per game (30th percentile) on a 47% shooting clip (ninth percentile). T

heir short-roll (1.2 PPP allowed, ninth percentile) and cutting defense (1.2 PPP allowed, 27th percentile) have been poverty, so Mitchell and Dylan Disu could eat here.

Baylors rim is anyones for the taking, and the Horns want to score at point blank Texas ranks first nationally in at-the-rim PPP (1.36).

Baylor's devolved from an elite no-middle, paint-denying defense to a team that can't stop the dribble, can't stop the short roll, can't stop cutters and can't protect the rim pic.twitter.com/0GiMOqDsj1

— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) January 18, 2024Baylor should open as a short favorite on Saturday, but every major predictive analytics site projects Texas as a short home favorite. This game could be a classic case of the wrong team being favored.

Texas beat Baylor in Austin last season, and the Longhorns desperately need a win. Their backs are against the wall after losing three of four, and I expect Rodney Terrys best effort in an excellent schematic matchup on Saturday afternoon.

It’s also worth mentioning that ranked teams have struggled mightily on the road this season, posting a pathetic 33-57 ATS record. No. 9 Baylor could be in for another tough road loss — the Bears are due for more losses, anyway.

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Baylor vs. Texas pick

Pick: Texas ML (-110, FanDuel)

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