Dolphins vs. Chiefs Wild Card player props, picks: Patrick Mahomes
Cold temperatures and wind chill are likely going to make points in Saturday night’s primetime Dolphins-Chiefs matchup hard to come by.
But there are still a few overs worth targeting tonight in a game that will feature two historically explosive offenses.
Expect temperatures to open around -1, according to most weather reports.
As The Post’s Dylan Svoboda pointed out, the Dolphins are 0-10 in games with the temperature less than 40 degrees, the worst mark of any team in the league.
Should this game truly kick off at less than zero, it would be the fourth game in NFL history to do so.
Including wind chill, we’re looking at a painful -20 or worse.
Don’t expect too much offense in this one, but don’t discount that there are still plenty of big-play threats that can rip the smallest of gains for touchdowns.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs player props and picks
Justin Watson over 1.5 receptions (-130, DraftKings) | 5+ receptions (15/1, Bet365)
The longer side of this prop would require the Chiefs to be in catch-up mode for most of the game as Patrick Mahomes attempts to bring the Chiefs back.
Justin Watson is a trusted receiver of Mahomes and should still get plenty of looks regardless of the game script; he received five targets in November’s 21-14 win over the Dolphins earlier this year.
Justin Watson is one of the few sure-handed receivers the Chiefs have left. Getty ImagesWatson has received at least three targets in six of his last seven games. We all know that Miami’s secondary is banged up as well.
Watson is one of the better bets among all pass catchers this weekend at this small price, and his 15/1 number is quite tasty for him to get five receptions.
If the Chiefs enter catch-up mode, look no further than Watson to be a security blanket of sorts this evening.
QB comparison: Patrick Mahomes is 10-1 in temps 40 and below with a 94.1% passer rating. (Including playoffs)Tua is 6-13 in temps under 70 degrees and 0-4 under 40 degrees with a 57% passer rating The Miami Dolphins are 0-10 in temps below 40 degrees. (The longest losing pic.twitter.com/mPHUieXY6a
— Chiefs Focus (@ChiefsFocus) January 10, 2024### Patrick Mahomes to throw an interception (+100, BetMGM)
A thought experiment if his name wasn’t Mahomes and, say, Carson Wentz, would you notice a difference between his stats?
Mahomes has turned the ball over at an alarming rate, with 14 interceptions this season and at least one in 12 of 17 games.
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Don’t buy into so much cold weather hype eithe; this Dolphins team should travel very well in the cold and profile as an excellent front-running team.
If the Dolphins get ahead, the Chiefs will be in a tough spot, forced to throw more than they want, and tipped passes and drops, which have plagued the Chiefs, becoming even more problematic.
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