Chiefs vs. Bills player prop picks: NFL predictions, odds
In the most-anticipated game of the weekend, the Chiefs look to avenge their early season loss when they hit the road and head to Buffalo to take on the red-hot Bills.
This is as true a coin-flip game as it gets. Patrick Mahomes is 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career and has yet to lose in the divisional round of the playoffs.
But hell truly be put to the test in a road game against the Bills, who enter on a six-game win streak.
While I lean toward Buffalo laying the 2.5 points in this matchup, there is one player I am targeting in a big way Sunday night.
Thats Buffalo running back James Cook, who has seen his usage skyrocket under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. I like Cooks Over 83.5 rushing and receiving yards.
Though Miami was unable to do it successfully last week, teams can run the ball on the Chiefs.
They are 27th in DVOA against the run and allow 84 rushing yards per game (4.51 yards per carry).
While Cook saw just 10 rushes, he was extremely effective, amassing 58 yards.
Weve seen the likes of Zamir White (145 yards) and A.J. Dillon (73) be able to run straight at K.C., and with an elite and dual-threat quarterback like Josh Allen under center, Buffalo should be run with efficiency on this Chiefs defense that will be spread thin.
Cook averages 4.7 yards per carry this season, and we saw in the wild-card round 18 carries, 79 yards how dominant he can be on the ground.
Since Brady took over the offensive play-calling duties from Ken Dorsey, Cook has seen 15-plus touhes in every game.
What brings the second-year pro to another level is his pass-catching ability.
James Cook celebrates after a rush during the Bills’ regular season win over the Jets. Getty ImagesThink back to that Chiefs game a little over a month ago.
Cook was effective on the ground, but he also hauled in five receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown.
Though K.C. has established itself as an elite pass defense, its Achilles heel has been the running back position.
The Chiefs are 21st in DVOA in defending the pass against RBs, allowing about 28 receiving yards per game to the position.
And if you look at Cooks snap count since Brady took over, when Buffalo finds itself in tight games, rarely will he leave the field.
This is the perfect buy-low spot on Cook.
Over the past four games, he has finished over 83.5 rushing plus receiving yards just once last week, by a half-yard.
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But prior to that stretch, Cook finished Over in each of the past five.
Im expecting the Bills to rely on Cook on Sunday night.
As mentioned earlier, Kansas City ranks inside the top five in DVOA against the pass and should give the Bills receivers plenty of fits.
Not to mention that Gabe Davis is also out, thinning this Buffalo receiving corps.
I trust Brady to put the ball in the hands of Cooks, both through the air and on the ground.
Its a high number, but Cook should see close to 20 total touches, thus making this number too low in my opinion.
Look for Cook to serve up an Over at home in Buffalos biggest game of the season.
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