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Browns (-132) vs. Texans (+111)
Cleveland takes their staunch defense to Houston for a tough Wild Card matchup on Saturday night. The Texans closed out the regular season hot, winning two straight and three of the last four games to end the year.
The last Houston loss was to Cleveland, in the NRG Stadium on Christmas eve. That game was rather telling because the Browns offense was humming, and put up more than 400 total yards and 34 points, while holding Houston’s dynamic passing attack to just 178 passing yards.
It doesn’t seem like that will be quite the case this time but nonetheless, the Browns defense has been superior at disrupting if not outright taking down QBs all year. That, in addition to the several injuries to Houston’s defensive front, indicate that the Browns will have the upper hand on QB pressure defensively and have an advantage running the ball on offense.
For the majority of the season, that’s all they’ve needed to win and it’s likely to happen again here.
One factor to keep an eye on, third and longs as Cleveland’s been able to force punts or field goals all year by hounding passers in third and seven or more. Houston’s conversion rate for third and longs in the last four weeks of the season was 19 percent.
Overall, the Browns are two point favorites with a 44.5 total. While the spread is tempting just based on the matchup, Houston is good enough team to keep this competitive throughout, if not mount a late game push. Cleveland has been tight on defense all year though and this will be another such game, bet the under as Myles Garett and company will be hounding Houston.
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