Week 16 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

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Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.

I will bring you my favorite totals of the week in this space all season long, focusing on what I believe to be the most significant inefficiency in the market: individual team totals. Working around key numbers is critical, and concentrating on one team or matchup helps eliminate a bit of variance in each bet.

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Let's dig into a Week 16 total.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time they're posted in Discord.

Leans/Lines I'm Monitoring

Key numbers are incredibly important to totals and team totals. Again, all official plays will be posted in Discord first, so I'd advise getting in there if you haven't already done so. The weather report is more relevant this time of year and appears to be a major factor this week. For now, I'm holding off on any game that's trending to have weather issues, but check the Discord for any more discussion there, and don't forget to check out this week's game preview episode of Move The Line.

Week 16 NFL Totals Bets

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