Ravens vs. Jaguars prediction: NFL odds, picks, player props
The whole world saw Trevor Lawrence slam his helmet on the ground in pain as the Jaguars fell to the Bengals on a Thursday night a couple weeks ago.
Despite being diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain, the star quarterback suited up the following week.
The Jaguars fell just short, now joining an extremely tight AFC playoff race with their second-straight loss.
Jacksonville returns home in arguably their toughest test of the season, a Sunday Night Football bout with the current No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens.
Though Im staying away from a side in this matchup, there is a player prop I have circled on the Jaguars side of things.
Look no further than Calvin Ridley, who is starting to find his groove. His current receiving yards prop is at 46.5.
Christian Kirks injury definitely leaves a void to be filled in this Jacksonville offense.
Though they have been trying to use Parker Washington in that role, more pressure and targets have fallen on Ridley and Evan Engram.
Expectations were high for Ridley when he made his first appearance since 2021.
He made a splash immediately eight receptions, 101 yards and a touchdown but was held to 40 yards or fewer in five of the next six games.
But recently, weve started to see Ridley show flashes of his incredibly high ceiling, after missing all of last season serving a suspension for betting on NFL games.
Calvin Ridley of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Getty ImagesOver his past four games, hes eclipsed 50 yards three separate times. Hes added three touchdowns and an average of nine targets in that span.
As for the matchup, its no secret Baltimores defense is among the NFLs best.
The Ravens rank second in DVOA against the pass and ninth against the run.
But they have struggled covering WR1s of late. Cooper Kupp and Keenan Allen both racked up more than 100 yards, and even Amari Cooper hauled in 98.
In general, they are 17th in DVOA to the WR1 position.
Safety Kyle Hamilton is also in danger of missing this week with a sprained MCL he is week-to-week and his loss could lead to potential deep shots over the top for Ridley.
This is also a defense that runs man coverage at the 11th-highest rate in the NFL.
Who was Jacksonvilles top options against man defense? None other than Kirk.
But he is on the injured reserve, and the next-man up when it comes to success against man is Ridley, who has a 2.01 yards-per-route-run rate against that coverage.
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Opposite him will be Zay Jones, but hes really struggled in one-on-one situations (0.73 Y/RR).
Volume is king as a wide receiver, and last week proved that without Kirk, Ridley is going to see a huge uptick in targets (he finished with 13).
This is another potential negative game script for the Jaguars, who have struggled to establish the run at times this season.
With an average depth of target of 14.1 yards, three receptions could get Ridley over this number.
I am expecting him to see his normal output of 8-10 targets once again Sunday night, and dont even mine laddering his alternative yards Over up to 100.
This is a great matchup for Ridley who, in the wake of Kirks loss, has to step up for Jackonsville to remain afloat in a tight-knit playoff race.
Im betting on a betting man. Back Ridley to go Over his receiving yards prop (47.5) on Sunday night.
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