Bettors burned by Shohei Ohtani-Blue Jays rumors
A costly blunder.
Thanks to some poor reporting, the world thought the Toronto Blue Jays were landing Shohei Ohtani.
But Ohtani was not on a plane to Canada, with Robert Herjavec’s private jet actually being tracked to Toronto.
One day later, Ohtani agreed to a $700 million contract with the Dodgers.
BetMGM Sportsbook saw massive action coming in on Toronto to win the World Series, with wagers significantly moving the line from 16/1 to +900.
BetMGM told The Post that the Blue Jays were the second-biggest liability to win the World Series behind only the New York Yankees, who just acquired Juan Soto.
Following the Ohtani frenzy, 10.1 percent of all World Series tickets are on the Blue Jays.
And most of them would surely like their money back.
In early November, the Blue Jays had the ninth-best odds in all of baseball at 16/1.
They dropped all the way to +900 amid the Ohtani-Blue Jays rumors, but are now back to 15/1.
Toronto has made no moves yet this offseason and is scrambling for answers.
At one point during the height of Ohtani speculation, the Blue Jays and Yankees were co-favorites to win the American League at +450.
“There were some pretty respected players that were betting the Blue Jays,” Eric Fenstermaker, Caesars Sportsbook’s lead baseball trader, told ESPN. “Then, the soap opera took a different path.”
Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels. Getty ImagesOhtani isn’t expected to pitch in 2024 but could resume his two-way sorcery at the start of 2025.
The odds shift represents just how massive Ohtani’s value is, even just as a hitter. The Blue Jays 16/1 price represents a 5.88 implied probability of them winning the World Series.
At +900 odds, the Blue Jays had a 10 percent implied probability of winning the World Series.
Even with the Blue Jays uncertain to land Ohtani, bettors believed that he gave them at least a 4.12 percent boost in World Series equity.
.@BlueJays odds to win World Series at @BetMGM+1600: Open+1400: Yesterday +1100: This morning+900: Now Only Braves and Dodgers have better odds to win World Series. pic.twitter.com/LKSqdNJ9uY
— John Ewing (@johnewing) December 8, 2023We saw a similar effect with Soto once he was traded to New York.
Soto’s move to the Yankees bolted the Bombers from 15/1 to win +800 on BetMGM, before moving back to +900 with the Ohtani-Blue Jays news.
The Yankees now stand at +950 with the Dodgers’ signing of Ohtani.
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Ohtani had a WAR of 6.6 as a hitter in 2023, according to Fangraphs, during his MVP season.
Meanwhile, Soto had a WAR of 5.5, but there’s room for improvement there. He could benefit from the short porch in the right field, and he had a 7.0 WAR in 2021.
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