Gonzaga’s massive Kentucky upset still not enough to put it in NCAA conversation

Gonzaga’s massive Kentucky upset still not enough to put it in NCAA conversation

No, Gonzaga, does not belong in the at-large conversation.

Not off of just one win at Kentucky. Not with its woeful rsum. Not based on its body of work.

After the Zags upset on Saturday over the 17th-ranked team in the country, the idea was floated on social media by a few Bracketologists that the West Coast Conference powerhouse was now in the mix to reach the NCAA Tournament. That Gonzaga, despite just one Quad 1 win, a 3-6 Quad 1 and 2 record, and a body of work as thin as a supermodel, was worthy of consideration. That its win over the trending-in-the-wrong-direction Wildcats was a victory that should worry bubble teams.

It should not. At least not where Gonzaga currently stands.

Gonzaga_s_massive_Kentucky_upset_still_not_enough_to_put_it_in_NCAA_conversation5Braden Huff #34 of the Gonzaga Bulldogs celebrates with Ben Gregg #33 during the 89-85 win against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena on February 10, 2024. Getty ImagesIf the Bulldogs were to add two more Quad 1 wins, at Saint Marys and San Francisco, maybe there would be a case for them. I get they have very good metrics, a NET ranking of 24 and KenPom ranking of 19, but the most consistent thing youve heard from the committee over the years is the most important part of your rsum are wins over at-large teams. Gonzagas record against such teams is 1-4. Three of the losses have come by double figures. And the one win came over a Kentucky team that has a bubbly rsum, a 2-5 record in Quad 1 games, and is trending towards being a double-digit seed if its current downward spiral continues or worse. Another significant part of an at-large rsum is the Quad 1 and 2 record. Below .500 is typically hard to overcome. Gonzaga is three games under. High-profile non-conference opponents like Syracuse, USC and UCLA struggling have really hurt the Zags. The best part of their rsum is the lack of a bad loss. Their worst setback is a road loss at Santa Clara, which is Quad 2.

Lets compare Gonzaga to some bubble teams. St. Johns, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Florida, Washington State, Mississippi State, Providence, Texas A&M and Xavier all have more Quad 1 wins and significantly better resultsto lean upon. Of course, they do have more opportunities coming from power conferences. Some of the aforementioned teams also have work to do to really have a shot at being selected, which goes to show you where Mark Fews team should stand currently.

Gonzaga_s_massive_Kentucky_upset_still_not_enough_to_put_it_in_NCAA_conversation5Ryan Nembhard #0 of the Gonzaga Bulldogs celebrates in the final minute of the 89-85 win against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena on February 10, 2024. Getty ImagesI wrote recently that Gonzaga was going to have to win the West Coast Conference Tournament in order to reach a 25th NCAA Tournament. Beating Kentucky doesnt change that. The only path I see to an at-large is winning out and losing toSaint Marys in the WCC title game, and even that might not be enough.

East of burden

The game of the week is in the Big East, No. 1 Connecticut hosting seventh-ranked Marquette on Saturday afternoon, but the two Final Four contenders are hardly the most fascinating thing about this conference, at least not now. As the leagues television deal with Fox nears its conclusion it expires June 2025 and negotiations begin for a new one, the Big East could be looking at as few as four NCAA Tournament teams or as many as seven.

Its not hyperbole to suggest this is a monster month coming up. Two games separate third place from ninth. All of those teams are in the mix to dance, but of those programs, only No. 19 Creighton and Butler feel safe. That leaves St. Johns, Seton Hall, Xavier, Providence and Villanova. It certainly would help the Big East from a bargaining position if it could send six or seven teams to March Madness. That remains possible, although that means two or three of the aforementioned five emerging over the next few weeks. Of late, nobody in that group has stepped forward. The league would like that to change.

Gonzaga_s_massive_Kentucky_upset_still_not_enough_to_put_it_in_NCAA_conversation5Connecticut guard Stephon Castle (5) dunks during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Georgetown. AP## Game of the Week

No. 7 Marquette at No. 1 Connecticut, Saturday, 3 p.m.

Marquette has won seven straight games. UConn has a nation-leading 12-game winning streak. Saturday afternoon in Hartford the Big Easts two premier teams two Final Four contenders with national championship hopes meet for the first time this season. Marquette will likely have to sweep the season series to repeat as league champions, adding even more significance to this matchup. A Connecticut victory would put the Huskies in the drivers seat for a Big East regular-season crown. The battle of dynamic point guards Tyler Kolek and Tristen Newton will headline this monster showdown.

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Check out more newsletters## Seeding:

1. Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona

2. Tennessee, Kansas, Marquette, North Carolina

3. Baylor, Alabama, Iowa State, Auburn

4. South Carolina, Illinois, Dayton, Creighton

Stock Watch

Up – Jeremiah Williams

Three games, three wins, and three impressive performances. The Temple and Iowa State transfer has infused energy and life into the Scarlet Knights, who obliterated No. 11 Wisconsin on Saturday. Im still not buying into Rutgers as an at-large contender, not with a NET ranking of 86 and Quad 1 record of 2-8, but Williams has changed the dynamic for this team, averaging 14.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists since he became eligible after violating the NCAAs gambling policy. An NIT berth is realistic, and would salvage what had been a lost season ahead of the star-studded recruiting class that is on the way.

Gonzaga_s_massive_Kentucky_upset_still_not_enough_to_put_it_in_NCAA_conversation5Rutgers’ Jeremiah Williams APUp – RJ Davis

Hes averaging 21.5 points per game. Shooting over 41 percent from 3-point range. Committing a career-low 1.5 turnovers in nearly 35 minutes per game. Has scored at least 20 points 16 times. There isnt a guard in the country playing better than the former Archbishop Stepinac star. Of all the reasons North Carolina has bounced back after last years disappointment of failing to reach the NCAA Tournament from the Tar Heels improved defense to the impact of Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram and progress made by five-star freshman point guard Elliot Cadeau Davis is at the top of the list.

Down – Kentucky

A 2-5 record in Quad 1 games. A 3-6 mark in Quad 1 and 2 games. A Quad 3 loss and just three wins over projected tournament teams. This is a rsum closer to the bubble than a four-seed. After Saturdays loss to Gonzaga, Kentucky has dropped three straight games at Rupp Arena for the first time in program history. John Calipari hasnt gotten Kentucky out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2019, an eternity in Lexington, Ky., and this defensively challenged team is trending in the wrong direction as March nears. Its fair to wonder if Calipari has lost his coaching fastball it was never elite to begin with despite his recruiting prowess.

Gonzaga_s_massive_Kentucky_upset_still_not_enough_to_put_it_in_NCAA_conversation5St. John’s coac Rick Pitino. APDown – St. Johns

Rick Pitinos first season has gone from successful to bitterly disappointing. Entering a Jan. 13 trip to Creighton, the Johnnies were tied for first place in the Big East, off to their best league start in 23 years at 4-1. The tournament felt like a safe bet. Now, after losing six of eight games, St. Johns needs a strong finish just to have a shot at dancing. This team has been unable to close out games, with a 3-7 record in contests in which the margin is six points or fewer in the final five minutes. It has blown halftime leads to Marquette (twice), Connecticut (twice), and No. 18 Dayton. Win just one of those games, let alone two, and the complexion of the season is drastically different.

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