Mets are stuck in complicated Pete Alonso limbo entering walk year

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Here is a question I have been thinking about a lot this offseason: If you, the fans, did not exist, would the Mets have traded Pete Alonso?

I do think that your presence has been a factor in Alonso remaining a Met. Because in a laboratory, there would be logical reasons for the Mets to deal him. Such as:

1) The Mets want to contend in 2024, but do not have an all-out approach. 2) This market is desperate for difference-making bats. 3) Every trend of the past 10 years has turned away from over-rewarding Alonso types: corner, non-athletic players who will spend the large majority of a long-term deal in their 30s. 4) The apparent large gap between what the Mets believe Alonso is worth and the view of his representative, Scott Boras.

In that sterile environment, a strong case could be made to trade Alonso. But the Mets notably Steve Cohen and David Stearns live in the real world.

Cohen is not quite the conquering hero today that he was 12 months ago, and dealing Alonso would only worsen his current perception with the fan base.

Mets_are_stuck_in_complicated_Pete_Alonso_limbo_entering_walk_year 5Mets first baseman Pete Alonso would likely spend the large majority of a long-term deal playing in his 30s. Jason Szenes for the NY Post5Pete Alonso remains part of the Mets’ contending cornerstone entering the 2024 season. Jason Szenes for the NY PostStearns, as the Brewers president of baseball operations, traded Josh Hader within a playoff chase, and that did not go well. And that was Josh Hader in Milwaukee. This is Pete Alonso in New York.

And Stearns, born and raised on the Upper East Side as a Mets fan, understands he does not want to begin his administration with a decision this Polar-izing (if you get it, tell a friend). He had plenty to do in his first offseason running the Mets without taking on that Bear (again, explain it to a friend), especially when a segment of the base is worrying if he was hired to bring small-market tenets to Cohen World.

So upon assuming his new job, Stearns pretty quickly made a public statement that he expects Alonso to be the Mets first baseman when the 2024 season begins.

Ultimately, Stearns was not a Met when the two key decisions about Alonso to this point were made:

To put him on the 2019 Opening Day roster. I want to state that was the right thing to do. It has been repugnant when organizations artificially kept players in the minors to manipulate service time and (among items) force them to basically play seven seasons to gain the six full ones needed for free agency.

But the general practice at the time was to do just that. Even three weeks in the minors would have delayed Alonsos free agency until after the 2025 season.

To not move him at last years trade deadline. He had 1/ years until free agency Thus, would have drawn more in a deal than now. Stearns was no longer running baseball operations at that time but was still with the Brewers, so he would have known their offer and obviously found out the Cubs bid and more once hired by the Mets.

Mets_are_stuck_in_complicated_Pete_Alonso_limbo_entering_walk_year 5David Stearns inherited the Mets’ Pete Alonso decision when he took over as president of baseball operations. Charles WenzelbergThat would give Stearns a reference point even if he did not solicit Alonso bids this offseason. He could deduce further from what the Padres received for Juan Soto with one year left until free agency (the Yankees also obtained Trent Grisham). Soto is a more alluring add, but this market would have likely expanded Alonsos value.

But the calculated decision here includes the Mets wanting to try contending this year. If they really were only playing for the long-term future, you could argue they should have tried to trade Francisco Lindor and/or Brandon Nimmo in this position-hungry market. Instead, with Alonso, Lindor, Nimmo, Francisco Alvarez, Jeff McNeil and Kodai Senga, the Mets have a contending cornerstone if they have supplemented well around it.

If not, the Mets will decide again in July about trading Alonso. For now, this has overtones of the Yankees dealings with Aaron Judge entering his walk year. The sides were far apart on what the long-term value of a New York-proven, homegrown, fan-favorite, elite power hitter. The Yankees made another long-term offer in spring 2022, Judge rejected, bet on himself and won by hitting a franchise record 62 homers to force Hal Steinbrenner to go to places (nine years, $360 million) he had never envisioned.

Mets_are_stuck_in_complicated_Pete_Alonso_limbo_entering_walk_year 5Pete Alonso’s Mets future remains one of the organization’s pressing storylines ahead of spring training. Jason Szenes for the NY PostWith those extra days in 2019, Alonso hit 53 homers to eclipse Judges rookie record of 52 set two years earlier. If Alonso hits 63 homers this year to eclipse Judges record for a New York player set two years earlier, he likely will force Cohen to reassess where he will go financially.

Neither side is publicly saying where they are at now. But Boras generally sets a very high bar and usually takes his players to free agency to gain clarity of their market value. I would suspect he will argue that Alonso should be in the Judge bucket due to being homegrown, New York-proven, a fan favorite, with elite power, and with greater durability to date. The Mets will argue Alonso is not the same athlete as Judge, nor as marketable, and that he is a first baseman and the market for that position has changed substantially in the past decade.

The demarcation line is 2014. That year the Tigers reached an agreement with Miguel Cabrera on a first base record $248 million over eight years in an extension that was still two years away from beginning. After the 2011 season, the Angels signed free agent Albert Pujols for 10 years at $240 million, the Tigers signed free agent Prince Fielder for nine years at $214 million, and the Reds extended Joey Votto for 10 years at $225 million (also starting two years later). Those all eclipsed the first base mark of eight years at $180 million that Mark Teixeira did with the Yankees after the 2008 season.

Mets_are_stuck_in_complicated_Pete_Alonso_limbo_entering_walk_year 5The market for first basemen, including the Mets’ Pete Alonso, has changed since 2014. Charles WenzelbergSince 2014 no first baseman has even beaten Teixeiras now 15-year-old contract. The largest deal is the eight-year, $168 million extension Matt Olson did with Atlanta. The most for a free agent is the heavily deferred six-year, $162 million pact Freddie Freeman did with the Dodgers that brought the present-day value to about $148 million. Both were in 2022.

Rafael Devers signed a 10-year, $313.5 million extension with the Red Sox last offseason going into his walk year with the understanding that he might play a good deal of that as a first baseman or a DH. But he signed as a third baseman going into his age-26 season. Alonso is heading toward his age-29 campaign (Judge was 30 in his walk year).

In many of the cases for large first base contracts, there was a motivating desperation by ownership to do a deal. But since then the general industry practice is to ignore the desperation, because contracts like those of, for example, Cabrera and Pujols aged so poorly with thickening corner bodies regressing in production in their 30s.

So we wait to see if Alonso performs well to force the Mets/Cohen to reassess? If he still gets traded? If the voice of the fanbase influences a decision?

The Mets future of Alonso is the main subplot for the organization with spring training scheduled to open in 3/ weeks.

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