Missouri vs. Ohio State prediction: Cotton Bowl odds, pick, best bet

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The 10-2 Missouri Tigers battle the 11-1 Ohio State Buckeyes in this years highly anticipated Cotton Bowl, which is likely the best non-Playoff bowl game this year.

Sadly, some of the games shine has been worn off by portal opt-out activity, specifically on the Buckeye sideline.

Starting quarterback Kyle McCord and all-world wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. wont play in the bowl.

The Buckeyes are down only three other starters aside, including only one on defense, but its hard to se them moving the ball without McCord and Harrison.

Conversely, Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz expects everyone healthy to be available for the Cotton Bowl as the Tigers look to cap off a magical season.

Throw in the motivational angle, and Im throwing a wad of cash at Mizzou in the first of this years New Years Six bowls.

Missouri vs. Ohio State odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Missouri	+3 (-105)	+130	o49 (-110)
Ohio State	-3 (-115)	-155	u49 (-110)

(Via BetMGM)

Missouri vs. Ohio State prediction

(8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

A big part of handicapping bowl season is handicapping motivation.

And I think the Buckeyes are disappointed to play in the Cotton Bowl rather than the College Football Playoff.

The Buckeyes are championship or bust every year, and losing the Big Ten to Michigan for the third straight season stings for Ryan Day and Co.

Plenty of Buckeyes are graduating or moving on, and I think Coach Day is working toward a rebuilding year in 2024.

Missouri_vs_Ohio_State_prediction_Cotton_Bowl_odds_pick_best_bet Head Coach Eli Drinkwitz of the Missouri Tigers on the sidelines during the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Getty ImagesConversely, the Tigers are ecstatic to play in a New Years Six bowl.

The last time Mizzou won 10 games was in 2014. The Tigers went 47-51 in the eight years between these two big seasons.

A Cotton Bowl victory means something to the Tigers and their fans. The ame cannot be said for Ohio State.

Between quarterback Brady Cook, running back Cody Schrader, and wide receiver Luther Burden III, Missouris offense is among the nations best, ranking 10th in EPA per Play and 14th in Pass Success Rate while scoring over 34 points per game.

If you need physical video evidence of Missouris explosiveness, look no further than this fourth-quarter game-winning drive against Florida, where Cook and Burden converted a 4th and 17 before driving a few more plays for the field goal.

Missouri converted the 4th and 17, then needed just a couple plays before kicking the winning field goal pic.twitter.com/LYmYssuDyD

— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) November 19, 2023Ohio States defense is elite, as defensive coordinator Jim Knowles improved the unit significantly in his second season.

But Missouri can score on anyone, including an unmotivated Ohio State unit.

However, the more significant Ohio State concerns are on offense. Im unsure if the Buckeyes can keep pace with Cook and Co.

Ive never been a fan of McCord, but hed be an upgrade over backup Devin Brown, who boasts 22 collegiate passing attempts.

Harrisons absence is far more significant.

The superstar salvaged Ohio States offense all year, accounting for over a third of the teams aerial output. 14 of McCords 24 passing touchdowns went to Harrison.

I dont think the Buckeyes can move the ball on anybody without him.

Even worse, Missouris most significant weakness lies in the secondary, where the Tigers rank 94th nationally in EPA per Pass allowed. In a perfect world, McCord to Harrison would play for the Buckeyes.

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Ohio State will try to run the ball into a Mizzou front seven that ranks 18th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and 39th in EPA per Rush allowed.

Between TyRon Hopper, Chuck Hicks, Johnny Walker Jr. and Darius Robinson, the Tigers held their own against opposing rushing attacks all season, keeping nine of 12 opponents under 150 rushing yards.

The Under might not be a bad look in what could be a low-scoring rock fight, but I think the total is too low at anything under 51 or 50.

Instead, Ill bet on Cook and a highly motivated Missouri team to score more than a shorthanded, dispirited, second-stringed Ohio State squad.

Missouri vs. Ohio State pick

Missouri +3 (-105) at BetMGM | Play to PK (-110)

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