College Football Playoff predictions: Take Michigan, Washington

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Alabama is not a juggernaut. The Crimson Tide shouldve lost to Auburn and they only beat Arkansas by three and Texas A&M by six.

Theyve improved mightily as the season has progressed, especially quarterback Jalen Milroe. But theyre also an easy offense to prepare for.

In the Rose Bowl on Monday, one step away from its first appearance in the College Football Playoff championship game, Michigan needs to avoid explosive plays and contain scrambles.

The Wolverines dont allow chunk plays, ranking third in passing plays allowed of 20 or more yards. And theyre generally good against mobile quarterbacks. Michigan ranks 14th in rushing yards allowed on scrambles and designed quarterback runs.

The key will be getting pressure on Milroe and forcing him to throw intermediate routes, as he struggles mightily with both.

Michigan ranks fourth in total pressures, and Alabamas offensive line is shaky. And considering the talent in the Wolverines secondary, Milroe should target those intermediate routes.

I expect Michigan to force Milroe into a few key mistakes, which should be the difference.

College_Football_Playoff_predictions_Take_Michigan_Washington Running back Blake Corum is interviewed after Michigan’s win over Ohio State earlier this season. APThe Alabama defense is talented, but Michigans offensive line should get a push, and with a healthy Donovon Edwards-Blake Corum duo, the Wolverines should be able to move the ball in a tight win.

The pick: Michigan -1.5.

Washington (+4) over Texas (CFP semifinal, Sugar Bowl):

Texas runs mainly quarters coverage, but Michael Penix Jr. and his elite wideouts shred quarters. The Huskies also burn opponents with hitches, outs and screens. Texas metrics are shaky against all three sets.

The Longhorns must pressure Penix, but I dont think they can. These two met in last years Alamo Bowl, and Texas managed only five pressures on 55 dropbacks.

Meanwhile, Washingtons defense is underrated. The unit slumped mid-season due to injuries, specifically in the secondary, but their safeties are now healthy, and they swarmed Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship. The Ducks went 3-for-10 on third down.

College_Football_Playoff_predictions_Take_Michigan_Washington Michael Penix Jr. APIts also worth mentioning that top wideout Xavier Worthy was on crutches following the conference title game. The Longhorns aerial attack could struggle if hes not 100 percent.

Washingtons rush defense isnt great, but the Longhorns offensive line is subpar at run blocking. Texas ranks just 56th in EPA per Rush, so the Horns cant exploit the Huskies biggest weakness.

Oregon (-16.5) over Liberty (Fiesta Bowl)

Following the Pac-12 Championship loss, Bo Nix gave an impassioned speech.

It was always my goal to be a college football quarterback. I worked for it every day. Im going to enjoy the moments I have left with my teammates.

To Nix, that means one final ride in the Fiesta Bowl.

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With Nix and Bucky Irving playing, its hard to imagine Liberty generating stops. The Flames rank 70th in EPA per Play allowed. Their main issue is allowing chunk plays, ranking 95th in Explosiveness allowed.

All the Ducks do is generate explosives.

Monday is Nixs final day living his dream. He has the playmakers and matchup to cook. I also dont expect him to exit this game until the final whistle, even if Oregon is up 30.

Last week: 2-1. James Madison (L), Northwestern (W), Coastal Carolina (W) 2023 season: 20-25

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