Syracuse vs. Duke prediction: ACC college basketball picks, best bet

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Were knee-deep into ACC college basketball conference play, which is always a fun time of year.

And matchups between Syracuse and Duke are always worth watching.

Of course, this isnt your typical Orange team. They moved on from Jim Boeheim, and first-year head coach Adrian Autry has brought Syracuse into the 21st century the Orange are now uptempo and guard-first on offense and primarily man-to-man on defense.

So, while Duke has won seven straight against Syracuse the Oranges last win over the Blue Devils came in January of 2019 things could be different this year.

Im unsure if the Orange break the losing streak here, but Im betting they cover a two-touchdown spread.

Syracuse vs. Duke odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Syracuse	+14.5 (-110)	+800	o151.5 (-110)
Duke	-14.5 (-110)	-1400	u151.5 (-110)

(Via BetMGM)

Syracuse vs. Duke prediction

(9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

The key to stopping Duke is two-fold.

First, you need to keep the Blue Devils out of transition. They love to run when they can.

Second, you need to hang down low with superstar big man Kyle Filipowski.

I think the Orange can handle both tasks.

Theyre elite defending in the open court, ranking seventh nationally in transition PPP allowed (.78).

Their interior defensive metrics are shaky, but they rank above average in pick-and-roll roll-man PPP allowed (.96) and boast elite block metrics (13.8%, 24th nationally) behind the big-man duo of 6-foot-8 Maliq Brown and 7-foot-4 Naheem McLeod.

Also, dont overlook 6-foot-9 Benny Williams. The Orange have bodies to throw on Filipowski.

Conversely, as alluded to, Coach Autry has crafted Syracuse into a guard-first, isolation-heavy, rim-running uptempo offense spearheaded by the elite backcourt of Judah Mintz and JJ Starling.

Mintz could be a top-five point guard in the ACC. Hes dropping 19 points and four assists er game while also nabbing over two steals per game defensively.

Hes among the nations most underrated players and the type of guy we should be betting on as we enter conference play.

Syracuse_vs__Duke_prediction__ACC_college_basketball_picks__best_bet Jared McCain #0 high-fives Kyle Filipowski #30 of the Duke Blue Devils. Getty ImagesJudah Mintz is really, really good at basketball pic.twitter.com/Y1BAE5AuTn

— Ashley Wenskoski (@AshleyWenskTV) December 31, 2023Meanwhile, the Blue Devils’ transition defense is poor (1.12 PPP allowed, 14th percentile among D-I teams), and their isolation defense is even worse (.97 PPP allowed, ninth percentile).

Tyrese Proctor is a devastating backcourt defender, and its nice that the Blue Devils have him back after injury. But Jeremy Roach, Jared McCain and Caleb Foster are not elite defenders; all could struggle to stay in front of Mintz.

Filipowski should be able to pull Syracuses big men out to the perimeter, spacing the floor and cooking the Orange that way.

But I think Syracuse has enough schematic advantages to keep this game within double-digits. And weve already seen Duke play down to ACC competition this year, with a puzzling home loss to Georgia Tech as 12.5-point favorites.

The predictive statistical sites agree. EvanMiya projects Duke as a 12-point home favorite on Tuesday, while BartTorvik makes the line Duke -11.

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Even better, our Action Network internal numbers project Duke as just a 10-point favorite.

Ill roll with the Orange in Cameron.

Syracuse vs. Duke pick

Syracuse +14.5 (-110, BetMGM) | Play to +14 (-110)

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