Kentucky vs. LSU prediction: College basketball odds, picks, best bets

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Boy, John Calipari needed that one.

Before Saturday, the Kentucky Wildcats had been stuttering for a while. Their last Quad 1 win was in early January.

The defense had fallen off a cliff.

But the Wildcats walked into The Jungle and obliterated Auburn, jumping to an early double-digit lead, extending it to 16 in the second half and closing with an 11-point, wire-to-wire win.

Surprisingly, Kentucky didnt play all that well offensively.

Instead, the defense suddenly woke up and shoved one of the nations best offenses into a locker.

The Wildcats held Auburn to the Tigers second-lowest single-game Offensive Rating mark of the season (90.5).

Unfortunately, Wednesday night in the Bayou looks like a prime letdown spot against an LSU team trending upward.

Kentucky vs. LSU odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Kentucky	-4.5 (-105)	-182	o165.5 (-110)
LSU	+4.5 (-115)	+150	u165.5 (-110)

Odds via FanDuel## Kentucky vs. LSU pick

(9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Following the biggest win of their season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Wildcats come out flat against lowly LSU on Wednesday.

Its also a big lookahead spot for Kentucky, as Coach Cals squad is likely looking ahead to a home game against SEC-leading Alabama on Saturday.

Meanwhile, LSU is likely thrilled to be back at home after this recent stretch.

Five of the Tigers past seven games have come on the road, with trips to Alabama, Tennessee, Florida and South Carolina during the stretch.

And LSU didnt play that poorly during this rough stretch.

Three of the Tigers past six losses came by a combined eight points, and they most recently pulled off a crazy, late-game upset over South Carolina in Columbia.

Kentucky_vs_LSU_prediction_College_basketball_odds_picks_best_bets Jalen Cook #3 of the LSU Tigers puts up a first half three pointer over Davin Cosby Jr. #4 of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Getty ImagesThe situational spot screams LSU, as I expect an upstart Tigers squad to compete tooth-and-nail with a Kentucky squad ripe for regression.

The schematic matchup is messier.

The key for LSU on Wednesday will be trusting Cook to create in the pick-and-roll.

Since returning to the lineup, the Tulane transfer ranks in the 97th percentile of players in pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP (1.19) and hes calling his shot on more than 30% of plays.

Kentucky has a myriad of defensive problems. But a major one is on-ball defense against ball-screen dribble creators i.e., the guards arent defending on the perimeter.

While Reed Sheppard has more than held his own, DJ Wagner, Rob Dillingham and Antonio Reeves are three brutal perimeter ball-screen defenders.

Player	Ball-screen PPP allowed	Evan/Miya DBPR
R. Sheppard	.51 (91st percentile among D-I Players)	+3.6 (3rd among 123 SEC Players)
D. Wagner	1.14 (5th percentile)	+0.6 (87th)
R. Dillingham	.94 (20th percentile)	+0.7 (78th)
A. Reeves	.80 (44th percentile)	-0.2 (111th)

Sure, these guys put together an excellent performance against Auburn. But I’m not ready to believe the Wildcats’ defense is fixed.

Instead, I’m chalking up Kentucky’s excellent defensive performance to Auburn’s 4-for-22 (18%) 3-point shooting performance.

Cook should be able to hunt mismatches in ball screens and drive to the rack against whichever guard gets switched onto him.

Unfortunately, thats only possible if he plays.

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Cook is listed as questionable to play Wednesday, as he missed Saturdays game against South Carolina with a leg injury.

With the point guard in the lineup, I feel confident that the Tigers can compete on the floor in a solid situational spot.

Without him, my confidence drops significantly.

So, I recommend closely monitoring the injury report and hammering the Tigers if Cook is available.

Kentucky vs. LSU prediction

Bet: LSU +6.5 (-115, BetMGM) *** IF Jalen Cook plays

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