College basketball predictions: Take favored Florida, Utah State

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Two unranked, home favorites, hosting nationally ranked opponents? Ill explain why oddsmakers care little about national rankings.

Kentucky at Florida

You probably would have to turn the clocks back to 2016 and the Wildcats guard duo of Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis to find a Kentucky backcourt that struck fear into opponents.

This season, the advanced metrics community universally loves this No. 6-ranked Kentucky team particularly its backcourt of Rob Dillingham, Antonio Reeves and Reed Sheppard. The trio averages 46 points per game on 48 percent shooting from 3-point range.

So why am I stepping off of the Big Blue bandwagon now? Rebounding, pure and simple.

Kentucky checks in at 232nd in offensive rebound percentage and 176th in rebound margin after dominating the glass for years, thanks to Oscar Tshiebwe. This deficiency leaves the Wildcats extremely vulnerable on the defensive end when theyre facing teams that are adept at getting second-chance buckets.

Florida fits that bill and then some. Only three teams in the entire country grab more offensive boards per game than Florida (14.6). The frontcourt tandem of former Seton Hall Pirate Tyrese Samuel and Micah Handlogten are going to get a lot of easy put-backs in this game. If Kentucky can surrender 24 offensive rebounds to Illinois State, the roof really could fall in on it here.

And because I mentioned backcourts at the onset, lets discuss Floridas. The Gators are the only power conference team in America to start four guards who all average north of 11 points.

Zyon Pullin has really come into his own since transferring in from UC Riverside. The uber-talented wing is averaging 17 points, five assists and four rebounds on 59 percent shooting from the field across his last three games.

College_basketball_predictions_Take_favored_Florida_Utah_State Rob Dillingham goes up for a dunk during Kentucky’s 96-70 win over Illinois State earlier in the season. APThe Gators proved early in the season in a 95-91 loss to Baylor that they can hang with a run-and-gun team, so Kentuckys preferred pace doesnt scare me in this matchup.

And then theres the ODome. When Florida is healthy and playing at a high level, its home floor is as intimidating as any in college basketball. Before Colin Castleton went down with an injury last winter, Florida dismantled No. 2 Tennessee at home. Thats the kind of magic that weve grown accustomed to seeing in Gainesville.

I believe this will be Todd Goldens marquee win of the season and would play Florida up to a full possession as a favorite.

Recommendation: Florida -3.

Colorado State at Utah State

Another short home favorite has caught my attention. No. 13 Colorado State is rolling this season and point guard Isaiah Stevens is arguably the best floor general in America (17.4 points and 7.4 assist per game). But this is simply a bad matchup for Colorado State.

Utah State has a breakout big by the name of Great Osobor. The British import has transformed himself from a rotational player at Montana State to a star with the Aggies in just one year. Osobor is averaging 18.4 points and 9.7 rebounds per game, and the rebounding department is where CSU is vulnerable.

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The Rams dont start a single player taller than 6-foot-8, and as a result, they cant do any damage on the offensive glass (312th). If theyre not shooting the lights out, things could get ugly.

On the other side of this matchup, Utah State keeps winning despite rotten luck from long range. It recently survived a 2-for-21 shooting night from deep in a quality win over San Francisco.

The Aggies are a candidate for positive shooting regression, and if they start burying triples, the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum crowd should do the rest. Utah States home floor has provided a stellar home-court advantage, helping the Aggies cash against the spread tickets at a 60.6 percent rate since 2018.

Recommendation: Utah State -2.5

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