Oklahoma vs. North Carolina prediction: College basketball odds, pick, best bet

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Many teams are jumping into conference play this week.

But surprisingly, Oklahoma still has three more non-conference games before entering Big 12 play and North Carolina has two more before ACC competition.

Those journeys start Wednesday with a head-to-head matchup at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte.

Given this game is in North Carolina, the crowd will be pro-Tar Heel even if its not in Chapel Hill.

Pair that with the situational spot for UNC and Im betting heavily on the Heels in this big non-conference college basketball game.

Oklahoma vs. North Carolina odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Oklahoma	+1.5 (-105)	+110	o154.5 (-110)
North Carlina	-1.5 (-115)	-135	u154.5 (-110)

(Odds via BetMGM)

Oklahoma vs. North Carolina prediction

(9 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

The Sooners are undefeated at 10-0 but havent played a top-tier opponent yet.

They havent played a single KenPom top-40 or Quad 1 opponent. Their best win is a two-point neutral-court victory over USC, and they needed a 10-for-22 (45.5%) 3-point shooting performance to pull it off.

They havent played a single true road game yet.

While this doesnt qualify as one, itll be the most hostile environment theyve played in.

Its time for Oklahoma to lose a game, and this is the one.

Oklahoma_vs_North_Carolina_prediction_College_basketball_odds_pick_best_bet John Hugley IV of the Oklahoma Sooners. Getty ImagesMeanwhile, Wednesday night presents an excellent buy-low opportunity for North Carolina, looking to bounce back off consecutive losses against Connecticut and Kentucky.

Speaking of strength of schedule, its hard to stack up with the Heels in that regard. The Heels have played six consecutive games against KenPom top-100 opponents, including four Quad 1. Per Team Rankings, theyve played the nations 11th-toughest schedule.

The Tar Heels went 3-3 during this stretch, but two losses came by a combined six points including an overtime loss to Villanova while the three wins came by a combined 31 points.

The Heels are battle-tested, whilethe Sooners arent ready for a bump in competition in a brutal environment.

Schematically, I dont mind this matchup for North Carolina.

The Sooners run an up-tempo, ball-screen-heavy, rim-running offense. Porter Moser wants to get the ball into Javian McCollums hands so he can dribble-drive and dish to John Hugley and Otega Oweh.

But its hard to get inside on the Heels because Armando Bacot is a dominant interior presence. Per ShotQuality, the Heels allow only 30% of opposing shots at the rim, the 10th-lowest mark nationally.

Even better, the Heels only allow six fast-break points per game (90th percentile), which should hamstring a Sooners offense that lives on fast-break points (14 per game).

Oklahoma_vs_North_Carolina_prediction_College_basketball_odds_pick_best_bet UNC star Armando Bacot shoots against UConn. Getty ImagesThe Heels can stop what Oklahoma wants to do.

These teams are mirror images of each other, as North Carolina also loves to run the floor with RJ Davis, Cormac Ryan and Elliot Cadeau while posting up on the interior with Bacot.

The Sooners defensive metrics against transition and post-up sets look good, but I believe the numbers are inflated due to an easy schedule.

More importantly, I dont think Hugley or backup center Sam Godwin can defend acot down low, as both are smaller than the 6-foot-11, 240-pound Bacot and merely average in post-up PPP allowed (Hugley 0.77, 58th percentile; Godwin 7.3, 63rd percentile).

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And, more generally, the Heels can score on anybody.

Their offense has been humming, as they rank ninth nationally in offensive efficiency while scoring 85 PPG. They dropped 100 on Tennessee, supposedly among the nations elite defenses.

But this handicap is primarily predicated on the situational spot. The Sooners are overvalued after a hot start against sub-par competition, and the Heels are undervalued after back-to-back losses against championship contenders.

The ShotQualityBets model agrees, projecting the Heels as eight-point semi-home favorites over Oklahoma.

As a result, Im all over the Heels as short favorites and would play them at -3 (-110) or better.

Oklahoma vs. North Carolina pick

North Carolina -1.5 (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook | Play to -3 (-110)

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