Liberty vs. Charleston prediction: College basketball odds, pick, best bets for Field of 68

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So, weve got Liberty, FAU, and Charleston playing a little round-robin in Charleston this weekend for the Field of 68 Tip-off.

It should be a fun event, especially for mid-major basketball lovers like myself.

But this puts Liberty in a brutal situational spot.

The Flames lost 83-58 in a physical, demanding game against top-dog FAU on Thursday night and now play Charleston on Friday night.

Meanwhile, the Cougars didn’t play Thursday and will be on five days rest after beating Kent State last Sunday.

I think Charleston can catch an exhausted Liberty team off balance.

Liberty vs. Charleston odds

(via BetMGM)

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Charleston	+6.5 (-105)	+260	o146 (-110)
Liberty	-6.5 (-115)	-350	u146 (-110)

Liberty vs. Charleston prediction

Theres no way to sugarcoat it. Stopping Liberty is a tough ask.

The Flames have been Flamethrowers, leading the nation in eFG% (62.1%) and ShotQuality half-court PPP (1.13). Theyre scoring 85 points per game despite playing at a sub-300 tempo.

Itll be especially tough for Charleston to stop Liberty if the Cugs keep playing horrendous defense. Theyre 227th in eFG% allowed (51.3%) and 263rd in PPP allowed (.91).

But these are two 3-point-reliant teams, each ranking top-20 in 3-point rate. And both are due for some shooting regression to the mean.

Starting with Charleston.

ShotQuality projects the Cougars should be shooting 34% from 3 instead of 27% based on the quality of attempts.

Synergy confirms that claim. The Cougs rank in the 11th percentile of D-I teams in unguarded catch-and-shoot PPP (.85). Theyll make more open jumpers going forward.

Meanwhile, ShotQuality projects that Liberty should be shooting 36% from deep instead of 40% and Flames opponents should be hitting 34% from 3 instead of 28%, based on the quality of shots taken and allowed.

And, per Synergy, Liberty ranks in the 89th percentile of teams in guarded catch-and-shoot PPP (1.2). The Flames should miss more tough jumpers from now on.

Liberty_vs_Charleston_prediction_College_basketball_odds_pick_best_bets_for_Field_of_68 College of Charleston head coach Pat Kelsey talks to his players during a game in January 2023. APThis means two things.

First, Liberty is likely a tad overvalued in the market, while Charleston is a tad undervalued, compared to the true talent level. Projection systems tend to agree, with the ShotQualityBets model projecting Liberty as a three-point favorite and BarTorvik pegging the Flames as a four-point favorite.

Second, I hope that with a substantial rest advantage one way well see this regression naturally take place.

Aside from shooting regression and rest advantage, there is one schematic matchup Im targeting with Charleston.

The Cougars like to hit the post, dishing the ball inside to 6-foot-10 big man Ante Brzovic.

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Meanwhile, Libertys post defense is trash, with the Flames ranking in the 12th percentile of D-I teams in post-up PPP allowed (1.05).

And Brzovic will enjoy a considerable size advantage here, as Liberty doesn’t have a single player above 6-foot-7 on the roster.

While Liberty will be 3-point reliant and due for regression, Charleston will have a more accessible avenue to offense behind these post buckets.

Between the situational rest advantage, shooting regression and schematic advantages, I expect the Cougs to keep this one close.

If Liberty gets hot from 3, were cooked but Im willing to bet that doesnt happen.

Liberty vs. Charleston pick

Charleston +7 (-110) at Caesars | Play to +6.5 (-110)

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