Super Bowl Vivid Picks Plays: Best Player Props

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This is a bittersweet end to what has been a great year. Hitting multiple boosts that I wrote about in this column has been a ton of fun. Thankfully, we get one last shot at it for the Super Bowl!

You can check out my full Super Bowl breakdown for free or all of my official bets for the Super Bowl here. We will continue to fire off Vivid Picks plays over at Betsperts Golf and some NBA plays in 4for4's discord.

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Each week, I’ll be posting a free article with a few of my favorite plays of the week, some reasons why, and what I would play each leg to. If you enjoy my reasoning and want 15+ official plays each week, snag yourself a betting subscription for as low as $5! Also, join our FREE Vivid Picks Discord.

If you like my plays below, Vivid is offering a FREE boost! All you have to do is sign up using our code (4for4sub), click on “NFL,” click on the special boost pinned to the top, and your play will be boosted after you submit it! This week's is 7x using these three plays!

Super Bowl Vivid Picks Plays

Deebo Samuel over 57.5 receiving yards

Samuel, Aiyuk, and George Kittle have played 11 games together where they all played 60%+ of the snaps or were not a decoy.

In those games, Samuel led the team in target share at 22.2%. The Chiefs' pass defense has been awesome this year but has some exploitable tendencies. They have been allowed 15 total wideouts to clear 55 yards this season but, in particular, have been really good against #1 wideouts and have struggled against fringe WR1s/secondary options.

Clear No. 1 WRs vs the Chiefs:

Stefon Diggs (3-21, 4-24)
Justin Jefferson (3-28)
D.J. Moore (3-41)
Ja’Marr Chase (3-41)
Tyreek Hill (8-62, 5-62)
Davante Adams (5-73)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (6-71)

Fringe WR1s or secondary options vs the Chiefs:

Joshua Palmer (5-133)
Zay Flowers (5-115)
Christian Kirk (11-110)
DeVonta Smith (6-99)
Josh Reynolds (4-80)
Jakobi Meyers (6-79)
Jordan Addison (6-64)

I think we will see L'Jarius Sneed on Brandon Aiyuk for most of the game, as Aiyuk ran 75% of his routes on the outside, and Sneed has a high shadow rate. Regardless, both Deebo and Aiyuk move around a lot. I'm not fully ready to pencil in Aiyuk as the clear #1 and Deebo as the secondary option, but I do think they certainly mirror those lists of players closely.

On top of this, the Chiefs are among the league leaders in two-high safety looks defensively. In the same span with all three Niners wideouts, against two-high looks Deebo has absolutely dominated targets with a 27.2% target share and 2.35 yards per route run. The sample is also reasonably big, with all three players running over 100 routes.

I'm not sure that we see a ton of consistent success from Purdy and the passing game but when they do I think Deebo will be very heavily involved.

Christian McCaffrey over 92.5 rushing yards

I think we see the Niners rely on McCaffrey early and often here. I mentioned this in my Super Bowl breakdown as one of the keys to the game:

“The Chiefs' run defense has not been good this season, ranking 23rd in rushing success rate, 28th in EPA, and 27th in DVOA. The 49ers offense ranks 2nd in DVOA adjusted line yards while the Chiefs defense ranks 25th. The Chiefs have been especially bad against how the 49ers typically run the ball.

When the 49ers run, they use zone blocking on 75% of their carries (numbers can vary depending on data source, but regardless, it is overwhelmingly high). The Chiefs allowed 4.62 yards per carry to zone scheme runs and a 51.9% success rate, both 29th in the league. They had the second lowest stuff rate as well. All of these poor metrics came despite having the second-lowest missed tackles forced per attempt and a pretty average explosive run rate allowed.

The primary issue is they allowed 1.75 yards before contact per attempt. This could be a big issue against the 49ers who have averaged 2.05 yards before contact, 5.25 yards per carry, and sported the fourth-best rushing success rate at 55.5% on zone runs. McCaffrey could have an absolutely monster day if the Chiefs don’t figure out a way to slow down the running game.”

Isaiah Pacheco over 68.5 rushing yards

Like the Chiefs, the 49ers run defense hasn’t played all that well this season and is a big weakness.

They have been solid against the pass, ranking 5th in EPA and 7th in success rate, but have been brutal against the run, ranking 30th in rushing success rate and 27th in EPA, allowing 4.33 yards per carry.

Both the Packers and Lions demolished the 49ers on the ground, rushing for 111 yards (4.62 yards per carry) and 182 yards on 29 carries (6.27 yards per carry).

Pacheco could be in for a big game this week!

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