Super Bowl 58: Tackles and Assists Prop Bets Deep Dive
The Super Bowl prop menu is extensive. The 'Big Game' brings an assortment of prop bets that we only get once a year, and the novelty of it all is part of the appeal. Personally, I'm not a fan of laying -110 on heads or tails, though I do love a good Gatorade color bet at long odds.
While those novelty props are fun and unique, the Super Bowl brings in other unique on-the-field bets that can be exploited with a bit of research. These bets are more difficult for the bookmakers to price, and that's where the majority of my attention (and money) lands leading up to kick-off.
I don't stray too far off from where my bread is buttered, though. I went off the beaten path early last season, eschewing elite wide receiver and running back receiving yard overs for the tab on the sportsbook app that's there every week but rarely clicked. DEFENSE.
It became clear to me very early that the tackle and assist (TA) market was fertile ground for +ev bets. Over the past two seasons, my ROI on TA bets has been 11.2%, with a hit rate of 60.6%. The live market is also incredibly exploitable and has been a popular in-game addition for our 4for4 Bets subscribers. Sweating tackles will change the way you watch football and, hopefully, your bankroll.
A key factor and edge week to week in the tackle prop market is understanding the scorekeeper's tendencies. That sentence is likely difficult for you to process if you're new here, but there's a level of subjectivity around who's awarded a tackle (or assist). A reception is a binary outcome. It either happens or it doesn't, though one could argue that we still don't know what a catch is. Tackles are different. Was that a solo tackle, or did that defender coming in late also deserve an assist for his role? Did that runner willingly step out of bounds, or was he pushed? This can be quite a tilting experience if you're simultaneously watching the game and the box score, but it's all a part of the experience. Embracing the nuance of it and leveraging it is the only way.
I've been unsuccessful in my attempt to pin down an answer as to how the NFL scorekeeper situation works for the Super Bowl, but I don't believe it's the typical home team (in this case, the Raiders) scorekeeper. So, I've made no scorekeeper-related adjustments to anyone's projections. If you're wondering, the Raiders' scorekeeper handed out assists on 46.8% of tackling opportunities this season, the eighth-highest rate in the league and 3.12% above the league average.
In this space, I want to preview every available TA bet for the Super Bowl. Most sportsbooks offer solo tackles and assist bets separately as well, and I'll highlight those when applicable. These markets move quickly but are available weekly on Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, ESPNBet, and Bet365. FanDuel and BetRivers will dip their toes into the water for bigger games, but this is a market that we attack every week of the season at 4for4! I'll note the current best line and price, along with my projection, the expected hit rate, and the expected value (EV) of each play based on the projection.
Let's jump in.
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Kansas City Chiefs Overview
Chiefs' opponents are averaging 62.0 plays per game on the season (eighth-fewest in the league) and 64.7 plays per game in the playoffs. The 49ers' offense averages 60.7 plays per game on the season (sixth-fewest in the league) and 62.7 in the playoffs. San Francisco's opponents have averaged 59.4 tackles and assists per game, 24th in the league and 3.23% below the league average.
Nick Bolton
An ankle and wrist injury led to an uneven season for Nick Bolton, one of the league's top young linebackers and a core member of this much-improved Chiefs defense. His season-long rates are down versus last year due largely to multiple-week rotations with Willie Gay and Drue Tranquill while he was returning to full strength. Over the last month of the season, Bolton returned to his full-time role, playing at least 97% of the snaps in each of Kansas City's three playoff games. His 4 TA performance against the Ravens was more about Baltimore's offense than Bolton, as the Ravens abandoned the run and were inefficient through the air. Bolton had 13, 10, and 13 TAs in the three games prior to the Ravens game. He also topped this mark in 15 of his 20 games last season, including 10 in last season's meeting with the Niners. Linebackers have underperformed against San Francisco this season, accounting for just 24.92% of the tackles against the 49ers, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Even with that negative adjustment to Bolton's projection, I have him at 8.96 TAs in this spot.
Line: 8.5 Tackles and Assists (-115) Projection: 8.96 Over: 53.9% (+0.80% EV) Under: 46.1% (-13.84% EV)
Willie Gay
After leaving early with a neck injury in the playoff win against the Dolphins, Willie Gay is set to return to the lineup here in the Super Bowl. Much has been made about Gay's absence, which I think is leading to an inflated line here. When Bolton was out of the lineup this season, Drue Tranquill played ahead of Gay in single-linebacker sets. In games where Bolton and Tranquill were healthy, Gay topped out at a 67% snap rate, and that was back in Week 1. From Week 15 on, with both Bolton and Tranquill active, Gay topped out in Week 16 with a 58% snap share. With a generous projected snap share of 60%, I have Gay projecting for 3.51 tackles and assists in this matchup. He's only topped this mark in five of the 17 games he's played this season.
Line: 4.5 Tackles and Assists (-115) Projection: 3.51 Over: 27.6% (-47.24% EV) Under: 72.3% (+25.29% EV)
Justin Reid
Justin Reid has been a vital cog in Steve Spagnolo's defense this season, playing 98% of the team's defensive snaps with an appealing box snap rate of 29.9%. When looking for safeties to make tackles, we want to hone in on strong safeties that play in the box (up near the linebackers or in the slot) because it puts them closer to the ball pre-snap. Pretty straightforward stuff, and it correlates to higher tackle rates. Opposing safeties are accounting for a league-high 26.6% of the tackles against the 49ers this season, 4.7% above the league average, good for 15.8 TAs per game. This is a great spot for Reid, and the sportsbooks have priced him accordingly, though they aren't the same. FanDuel has a rouge 5.5, though it's juiced to the over (-152). Most others have Reid at 6.5, juiced to the under. I'm not interested in Reid's under here, so let's look at the 5.5 for the sake of this exercise.
Line: 5.5 Tackles and Assists (-152, FanDuel) Projection: 6.62 Over: 63.9% (+5.99% EV) Under: 36.1% (-19.92% EV)
Trent McDuffie
The 49ers have been the worst matchup in the league for cornerback tackle production this season. While efficient, overall, the 49ers are content to lean on the run and have a -2.2% pass rate over expected on the season. Now, Trent McDuffie's role as the Chiefs' slot cornerback against three-receiver sets keeps him closer to the ball and the line of scrimmage. The downside is that the Niners only used three-receiver sets on 22% of their offensive snaps this season. That pushed McDuffie to the outside for most of this game, though outside against the 49ers is a relative term since they like to run tight formations. Only 11 cornerbacks posted five or more tackles and assists against the 49ers this season, averaging 10.0 per game, 3.1 fewer than the league average. If you like the Chiefs in this game and expect a higher-than-normal pass rate for the 49ers, I'd target the over for McDuffie's solo tackle line at 3.5 (+135). Due to the nature of how most cornerback tackles happen, don't pay for assists that you don't need. I have McDuffie's solo projection at 3.88.
Line: 4.5 Tackles and Assists (Over +105, Under -122) Projection: 4.49 Over: 46.7% (-4.42% EV) Under: 53.3% (-2.87% EV)
L'Jarius Sneed
A lot of the Trent McDuffie data carries over for L'Jarius Sneed, except Sneed should remain outside after playing just 28 of 1189 snaps this season in the slot. Even so, Sneed's tackle rates resemble McDuffie's because he's a more efficient tackler. A lot of the pregame chatter centers around Sneed's matchup on the outside with Brandon Aiyuk, and while Sneed has been outstanding this season, Aiyuk is an elite separator against man coverage. I'd play the Sneed line the same way that I'd play McDuffie. If you like the 49ers here, under 4.5 tackles and assists for Sneed is worth a look, but a pass-heavy Brock Purdy makes Sneed's over 3.5 solo tackles (+114) an excellent value.
Line: 4.5 Tackles and Assists (-110) Projection: 4.39 Over: 44.7% (-12.6% EV) Under: 55.3% (5.46% EV)
Mike Edwards
Mike Edwards took over the primary free safety role in Week 13 after Bryan Cook was lost for the season. Edwards went down on the third defensive snap against the Bills, but he returned and played 93% of the snaps against the Ravens last week. Like his counterpart Justin Reid, Edwards fell short last week with just three tackles and assists, but the ineptitude of Baltimore's offense was to blame. Edwards had two strong matchups for safety tackle production (Green Bay and Buffalo) after Cook went down and showed a ceiling in both matchups (6 and 11 TAs). As noted for Reid, opposing safeties are accounting for a league-high 26.6% of the tackles against the 49ers this season, 4.7% above the league average, good for 15.8 TAs per game. We're getting a discount here due to Edwards's raw tackle totals, and the line isn't capturing his per-snap rate in this top-shelf matchup. If this moves to 4.5 (+100), there's still a +14.3% EV on the over.
Line: 3.5 Tackles and Assists (Over -160, Under +130) Projection: 5.07 Over: 74.5% (+20.99% EV) Under: 25.5% (-41.25% EV)
George Karlaftis
Defensive linemen, particularly defensive ends, have more fragile projections compared to other positions because sacks have a massive impact on their numbers. George Karlaftis has topped this line in four straight games, but he's only topped it in four of his 19 games this season where he didn't have a sack (half sacks count as full assists, if that makes sense). Brock Purdy's 13.3% pressure-to-sack rate was the fourth-lowest in the league this season and probably one of his more underrated skills, making a Karlaftis sack difficult to project. Overall, defense end tackling production against the 49ers is very close to the league average rates, so there's no exploitable edge there. There's no bet here for me at current prices.
Line: 3.5 Tackles and Assists (Over +160, Under -138) Projection: 3.27 Over: 41.4% (-3.18% EV) Under: 58.6% (-4.74% EV)
Mike Danna
With Charles Omenihu out for the Chiefs, Mike Danna should see a small spike in his snap rate in this matchup. The Chiefs move their defensive linemen around a bit, and Danna was still around a 70% snap share with Omenihu active, but when he was suspended for the season's first six games, Danna's snap rate hovered around 80-85%. Danna primarily lines up the right end, which matches him up with Trent Williams for the majority of his snaps. While that's not ideal, it will provide Danna with more opportunities. The 49ers run to the left on 58% of their rush attempts, which is the highest rate in the league. There will likely be some tough reps for Danna here, but the projections like him here with a 70% snap projection, but I think it'll be closer to 80%.
Line: 2.5 (Over +125, Under -150) Projection: 3.1 Over: 59.9% (+34.74% EV) Under: 40.1% (-33.14%)
Chris Jones
Chris Jones is one of, if not the best, interior defensive linemen in the game. But tackles are not where he thrives. He's excellent at pressuring the quarterback and collapsing the pocket for his teammates, but 2023 has been his worst tackling season, both in raw volume and efficiency. Jones has three tackles in the divisional round matchup against the Bills, which was the first time he's gone over this line in eight games and the first since Week 8 that Jones exceeded this line without a sack. He's currently priced at +130 to go over 0.25 sacks in this matchup. It is a slightly plus matchup for Jones, though, with defensive tackles averaging 10.2 TAs per game against San Francisco, 2.6% above the league average. I lean under, but I don't want to pay for it at the current price.
Line: 2.21 (Over +130, Under -160) Projection: 2.21 Over: 37.9% (-12.89% EV) Under: 62.1% (+0.95% EV)
Mike Pennel Jr.
Derrick Nnadi was lost for the season, and Mike Pennel Jr. has taken over the interior space-eating role on early downs. Pennel is tough to project because his playing time is so heavily dictated by the game script and the opposing team's game plan. His snap rate could range from the mid to low 30s (34.5% against the Ravens) or climb as high as the low 50s (52% against the Bills). I chickened out and have him projected at 45%. It's over or nothing for me.
Line: 2.25 (Over +150, Under -180) Projection: 2.31 Over: 39.0% (-2.33% EV) Under: 61.0% (-5.21% EV)
San Francisco 49ers Overview
49ers' opponents are averaging 61.7 plays per game on the season (seventh-fewest in the league) and 65.3 plays per game in the playoffs. The Chiefs' offense averages 63.8 plays per game on the season (14th in the league) and 65.0 in the playoffs. Kansas City's opponents have averaged 60.4 tackles and assists per game, 19th in the league and 1.6% below the league average.
Dre Greenlaw
Fred Warner gets all of the attention, but Dre Greenlaw is an elite linebacker in his own right. From a tackling standpoint, he's outperformed Warner in both per-snap volume and efficiency over the past two seasons. He's consistently around this 8.5 line but has topped it in just five of his 17 games played this season. That should be six of 17 after the "Big Dom" fiasco, of which I have still not recovered. The Chiefs have been a slightly above-average matchup for opposing linebackers this season, but not one that we should be running to blindly attack. With a projection right on the number, your handicap of the game matters if you're taking the plunge here.
Line: 8.5 (Over +112, Under -135) Projection: 8.65 Over: 49.7% (+5.35% EV) Under: 50.3% (-12.43% EV)
Fred Warner
Part of Fred Warner's greatness is tied to his ability to excel at anything he's asked to do. In this game, he'll be asked to diagnose Kansas City's offense pre-snap, cover Isiah Pacheco in the flat, Travis Kelce up the seam, and blitz Patrick Mahomes. From a tackling standpoint, Warner showed a higher ceiling than in years past but also posted the highest missed tackle rate of his career. He topped this mark in eight of 18 contests this season, and like Greenlaw, there's no projectable edge here outside of a game script where the Chiefs are playing from ahead.
Line: 8.5 (Over +105, Under -131) Projection: 8.59 Over: 51.1% (-9.88% EV) Under: 48.9% (+0.23% EV)
Ji'Ayir Brown
When Talanoa Hufanga went down in Week 11, Ji'Ayir Brown, a third-round rookie out of Penn State, took over the starting role. Brown has been dinged up a few times himself, opening the door for the veteran Logan Ryan, but Brown played every snap in the Conference Championship game against the Lions and showed out with a 10-tackle performance. It's noteworthy that the Lions are one of the premier matchups in the league for opposing safeties, surrendering a league-high 16.3 tackles and assists per game to the position. The Chiefs are on the other end of the spectrum. Opposing safeties average 11.5 tackles and assists per game, with just 19.04% of all tackles against Kansas City coming from opposing safeties, which ranks 30th in the league. Brown's been consistent, but his ceiling is capped due to his deep safety responsibilities.
Line: 5.5 (Over -130, Under +110) Projection: 5.09 Over: 40.0% (-29.18% EV) Under: 60.0% (25.94% EV)
Deommondre Lenoir
The 49ers use Deommondre Lenoir in a similar way that the Chiefs use Trent McDuffie. He plays every down but slides into the slot corner role in three-receiver sets, with Ambry Thomas taking the right cornerback role. The right cornerback spot was busy against the Chiefs in the Conference Championship round, with Baltimore's Brandon Stephens totaling nine tackles, but taking a single game sample and forecasting it forward is a fool's errand. It's especially difficult here with Lenoir and Thomas splitting snaps there. Regardless, Lenoir is a strong tackler and has shown a ceiling in the right matchup. Cornerback tackle rates can fluctuate from week to week, but the Chiefs have been a strong matchup for opposing cornerbacks all season due to their high pass rate over expectation. On the season, 24.67% of all tackles against Kansas City have come from opposing cornerbacks (14.9 per game), which is the fourth-highest rate in the league. I almost always lean to solo tackles for cornerbacks if I'm betting overs, and Lenoir is lined at 3.5 (-115).
Line: 4.5 (Over -145, Under +125) Projection: 5.75 Over: 67.9% (14.81% EV) Under: 32.1% (-27.88% EV)
Tashaun Gipson Sr.
The 49ers primarily play zone coverage and keep their safeties deep, which is not a recipe for high-volume tackle production. Just 5.65% of Tashaun Gipson's snaps have come inside the box this season, and his strong tackle performances have been few and far between and limited solely to the best matchups in the league (8 vs. CIN, 7 vs. BAL, 6 vs. DET). As noted above with Ji'Ayir Brown, the Chiefs are not an elite spot for safeties. Opposing safeties average a combined 11.5 tackles and assists per game, with just 19.04% of all tackles against Kansas City coming from opposing safeties, which ranks 30th in the league. Gipson has gone under 4.5 tackles and assists in 11 of 17 games this season.
Line: 4.5 (Over +130, Under -155) Projection: 3.57 Over: 28.8% (-33.81% EV) Under: 71.2% (+17.77% EV)
Charvarius Ward
The former Chief, Charvarius Ward, is the 49ers' best cover corner, but he won't match up with any specific Kansas City receiver since San Francisco keeps its cornerbacks on the same side every play. Again, cornerback tackle production is far less consistent than any other position, but as noted in Deommondre Lenoir's write-up, the matchup against the Chiefs is pristine. If you like the Chiefs to win this game, or at least play from ahead, Ward's solo tackle line at 3.5 (Over, +130) is an excellent look.
Line: 4.5 (+130 Over, -159 Under) Projection: 4.86 Over: 53.6% (+23.17% EV) Under: 46.4% (-24.34% EV)
Ambry Thomas
Ambry Thomas is one of the hardest projections for this contest because the game state and Kansas City's offensive formation drastically impact his playing time. That variance could lean to an under play for some, but the matchup is good, making it a stayaway for me. This projection for Thomas is based on a 70% snap share, but it could range from 55-80%.
Line: 3.5 (-150 Over, +120 Under) Projection: 3.46 Over: 45.4% (-24.36% EV) Under: 54.6% (+20.16% EV)
Javon Hargrave
Teams have attacked the 49ers rush defense on the edge and have done so with success, especially in the playoffs. Hargrave is an excellent interior pass rusher but a better tackler than some of his more notable peers at the position. He's topped this mark in 10 of 17 games this season, with seven of those coming in games without a sack. That's important here since I won't be surprised if the 49ers cannot sack Mahomes in this game, and pinpointing who will do it if they do is not a game I want to play. The interior defensive linemen tackle rates against the Chiefs are right in line with the league average, but the projections like Hargrave to top this line.
Line: 2.5 (Over +110, Under -135) Projection: 3.14 Over: 60.8% (+27.78% EV) Under: 39.2% (-31.85% EV)
Nick Bosa
Nick Bosa has three or more tackles in 13 of 19 games this season, but just five of those 13 were without a sack. If you remove the sacks from those games, Bosa topped 2.5 tackles in eight of his 19 games, which is still pretty solid. I don't want to punish him for getting sacks, but I want to isolate them in the projection because removing a difficult-to-project, singular event like a sack makes the projection more stable. The projections like Bosa to get home regardless of his sack output, but it's about as juicy as they come.
Line: 2.5 (Over -170, Under +140) Projection: 3.63 Over: 70.3% (+11.61% EV) Under: 29.7% (-28.65% EV)
Arik Armstead
Arik Armstead missed the final five games of the regular season but returned to his standard snap share for San Francisco's two playoff wins, and while he's one of the few 49ers on the injury report with a foot injury, he's expected to be a full-go for this game. Either way, this is a stay-away for me because I'd need a strong projection edge to attack a defensive tackle prop, and a lot of Armstead's spike games come when he records a sack.
Line: 2.5 (-110) Projection: 2.45 Over: 44.2% (-15.5% EV) Under: 55.8% (4.21% EV)
Javon Kinlaw
We saw a spike in snaps for Javon Kinlaw with Arik Armstead out of the lineup, but he's back down near 30% since Armstead returned. Kinlaw has actually been more efficient on fewer reps, with three and two tackles on his limited snaps in the past two games. The projections aren't buying into the recency bias; they like the under here. I do think there's something to the 'fresh legs' part of this, so I'll be sitting out despite the overwhelming numbers here.
Line: 1.5 (Over -125, Under +110) Projection: 1.41 Over: 41.1% (-25.97% EV) Under: 58.9% (+23.63% EV)
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