Super Bowl 58 DraftKings Pick6 Plays and Strategy

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DraftKings recently released their newest game called “Pick6”! It’s a peer-to-peer pick’em app where you combine multiple plays with significant upside. There are some unique twists in this game that makes this much different than a regular pick’ em app. If you sign up now you can get a stress-free $100 play!

For example, a 5-Pick NFL contest with a $10,000 total prize pool may have the following prize structure:

5/5 Correct Splits $8,000
4/5 Correct Splits $2,000

In this example, if the contest ended with 320 entries having 5/5 correct, each entry would win $25 ($8,000 / 320 = $25). If you had 2 entries in the contest among the 320 winning entries, your total prizes for the contest would be $50 ($25 x 2 = $50). You can win much more if the contest ends with just 100 entries getting 5/5 correct and could win less if say 500 entries get 5/5 correct.

If you want to learn more about basic rules and strategy, check out my evergreen piece.

DraftKings Pick6 Plays and Strategy

Since game theory and pick percentage matters here, I don’t want to just pick my favorite plays because who everyone else is picking matters just as much. We don’t have ownership data like DFS (yet) but based on the lines and players available I think we should find some good values.

Jauan Jennings under 1.5 receptions

This likely won’t be highly owned and is great value. Most other spots have this juiced towards the under.

Jennings has played in 15 games this season, catching 1-or-fewer passes in 8 of them. Yet a lot of context is missing from the games he went over:

Week 7 vs MIN (Deebo didn't play)
Week 13 vs PHI
Week 6 vs CLE (Deebo left the game very early)
Week 2 vs LAR (Aiyuk injured mid-game)
Week 15 vs ARI (Second reception came in garbage time from Sam Darnold)
Week 3 vs NYG (Aiyuk didn't play)
WC Round vs GB (Deebo didn't play)

He only went over 1.5 receptions in two games all season with both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk healthy, and it took garbage time to get there in one of them. On top of this, I expect the Niners to run the ball successfully here and potentially limit passing volume if they can help it. He may not even see more than 1 target, let alone 2+ receptions. This was released at -110 at DraftKings, but I would play it to -140.

Kyle Juszczyk under 3.5 receiving yards

Everyone loves “Juice,” and his line has been a popular pick at a lot of spots. I can’t imagine many are on the under here, which provides some value on its own. He only has a catch in 8-of-19 games this season and it’s not guaranteed he gets one here. I also think the Chiefs go extremely run-heavy here, which may limit overall total passing volume.

Brock Purdy under 33.5 passing attempts

In general, I think there will be some value on unders in this game, with most people skewing towards overs. On top of that, Purdy has cleared 33 attempts in just two games this season. As I mentioned before, the Niners will likely skew run-heavy because the Chiefs pass-defense is so strong and run defense is so weak.

Patrick Mahomes over 0.5 an interception

The 49ers generally only rush four (80%+), have been good at getting pressure since acquiring Chase Young, and play zone about 75% of the time. It’s pretty safe to assume we will see a heavy dose of that combination.

Mahomes on plays when opposing teams rush four and play zone:

70.4% completion rate
7.01 Yards Per Attempt
4.5% completion percentage over expectation
7 TDs and 10 INTS

He threw the second-most interceptions in the league in this exact matchup.

If you want to learn more about basic rules and strategy, check out my evergreen piece. If you sign up now, you can get a stress-free $100 play!

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