NFL playoff predictions: Lions vs. 49ers, Chiefs vs. Ravens picks, odds
It doesn’t always work out this way but, man, did the NFL ever run into the best possible Championship Sunday?!
Well be watching the player of the year in Ravens QB Lamar Jackson the player of the decade in Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes the best team in the league (heading in thats possibly the 49ers, but well find out).
And for my money, the Lions quest to make it to the Super Bowl is the best storyline the NFL has offered up in many years.
Throw in the fact that millions of Swifties are still watching, and Sunday should be a football day to remember.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5) over Kansas City Chiefs; Under 44.5
This game has everything.
Coaches: Andy Reid is on his way to the Hall of Fame, and John Harbaugh probably isnt far behind even if hes now back to being the second-most-famous Harbaugh in the NFL.
Harbaugh was a Reid assistant in Philadelphia for nine years (1999-2007). They werent able to get to a parade together, but Reid has won two Super Bowls with the Chiefs and Harbaugh one with the Ravens.
– Quarterbacks: Jackson is the regular-season-MVP-in-waiting and is off to a strong start for Super Bowl MVP, as well, after throwing two touchdown passes and rushing for 100 yards and another score against Houston.
This is the sixth straight season Mahomes has reached the league championship. Hes 3-2 in the prior five, and the Chiefs have averaged 33.8 ppg in those games.
Jacksons full postseason rsum doesnt look quite so good by comparison. Hes got a 2-4 record, has thrown for more than 200 yards only once and scored more than 20 points once.
Defenses: These are the top two defenses in the NFL in points allowed in the regular season, with the Ravens No. 1 at 16.5 and Chiefs No. 2 at 17.3.
In terms of yardage allowed, the Chiefs were No. 2 at 289.8 yards per game and the Ravens sixth at 301.4.
Both teams were better against the pass than the run, so that could lead to more running plays being called, which would figure to keep the clock rolling and portend an Under.
4Travis Kelce scored twice against Buffalo in the divisional round. APInjuries: The Ravens list only S Marlon Humphries as questionable among their starting 22 on offense and defense. Mark Andrews, one of the NFLs top tight ends, has been activated for this game.
The Chiefs have some Qs dotted among their lineup with two on the offensive line and four on defense, including top corner LJarius Sneed.
The biggest potential injury is RB Isiah Pachecos toe. It would become much harder for Mahomes to get the ball down the field against the Ravens without the threat of Pachecos speed.
The conspiracy theory: This needs to be mentioned, if only partially tongue-in-cheek. The romance of Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and the pop megastar in Swift has played out in front of our eyes on television from luxury boxes throughout the league.
The NFL and its TV partners have outwardly acknowledged and celebrated the relationship for months, and reaped the benefits of higher ratings. Is it crazy to think something might happen a key penalty or call, perhaps to keep the Swifties on board for another two weeks?
4Taylor Swift (r) celebrates during the Chiefs’ divisional-round win. Getty Images The situation: We already mentioned the injuries, but other current realities also seem to favor the Ravens.
They have played one playoff game, at home, against a rookie quarterback and probably the least accomplished roster of any team that made the playoffs.
The Chiefs already have had to play an Ice Bowl-type game against the dangerous Dolphins, then travel to Orchard Park and get by an excellent Bills team in more freezing temperatures.
Yes, the Chiefs have beaten better competition on a more daunting path, but theres also a price that might need to be paid for that because the NFL is a war of attrition.
The picks: Im going to take the Under because of the two great defenses. The side is much tougher.
Its tempting to take Mahomes as more than a field goal underdog, and theres something about the Kelce-Swift situation thats registering on my tinfoil hats meter.
But the Ravens have had some virtuoso performances this season beating the Lions, 38-6, and torturing Brock Purdy in a 33-19 win at San Francisco.
I believe this healthy and rested team will power through a tough opponent at home and get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2012-13 season.
Ravens, 24-17
4Lions quarterback Jared Goff. Getty Images## Detroit Lions (+7) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS; Over 51.5
Its been a tale of four seasons for the 49ers.
They started out 5-0 with a blast that included blowouts of the Steelers and Cowboys. Then they lost three in a row to the Browns, Vikings and Bengals, scoring 17 points in each game.
They followed that with a six-game winning streak that included a 41-19 rout at Philadelphia that looked great at the time but hasnt aged well.
Stage 4 started with a 33-19 home loss to the Ravens which wasnt even that close (it was 33-12 in the fourth quarter when Brock Purdy took his four interceptions to the bench). This stretch has also included a win over Washington, a meaningless loss in the finale to the Rams in which the starters were benched, and a squeak-by last week against the Packers in the divisional round.
4Christian McCaffrey scored twice against the Packers. APIt may sound a bit inconsistent, but Im not subscribing to the shorter-easier-path theory with the 49ers as I did above with the Ravens. Thats because the 49ers one game wasnt so easy and the Lions two games werent so hard, even if the wild-card win over the Rams was too close for Eminems comfort.
My takeaway is that those games, both at home, didnt take all that much out of Dan Campbells charges.
Detroit doesnt have a good defense, which leaves the door open for a 49ers blowout, but I dont think thats how its going to play out.
Im looking for Jared Goff to have a lot of success throwing to the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery breaking off enough runs to keep this interesting at the number. Campbell knows hes going to need to score a lot of points to win, and that should keep the tempo quick throughout, with lots of plays and scoring opportunities for both teams.
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So for that reason I like the Over. Again, the side is trickier, but I love that the Lions are back in their historic role as touchdown underdogs.
Campbell can use that as motivation here. Detroit has been an underdog just three times this season and is 2-1 ATS (win at Kansas City, blowout loss at Baltimore, controversial one-point loss at Dallas).
I really would love to be living in a world in which the Lions are going to the Super Bowl. I dont think its ultimately going to turn out that way, but Im happy to take the points and root for them.
49ers, 30-27
Last week: 7-1 (3-1 sides, 4-0 Over/Unders).Lock of the week: Lions (Locks 6-13-1, including playoffs).
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