Daytona 500 predictions: Four long shot picks for Great American Race

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The 2024 Daytona 500 commences Monday afternoon following a rainout Sunday.

The latest odds from BetMGM have Denny Hamlin (10/1), Joey Logano (12/1) and Kyle Busch (12/1) as the favorites.

Daytona is unique from a betting perspective because superspeedway races tend to produce surprise winners.

After all, the past three Daytona 500 winners have six combined career Cup Series wins.

Its best to look further down the odds board to find value. Ill avoid the favorites on the outright market because of the unknown.

My favorite bets for the Daytona 500 feature a pair of outright winners and placement bets. Will the underdogs come through at Daytona?

To win: Martin Truex Jr. (16/1, BetMGM)

Truex is one of the veterans of the sport the 43-year-old is making his 20th start in the Daytona 500. Truex has accomplished a lot in NASCAR, but the 2017 Cup champion has never reached victory lane at a superspeedway.

Though it can be risky to bet on a driver with an 0-37 record at Daytona, his superspeedway numbers have improved over the past few years.

Truex has led double-digit laps in five of the past 11 Daytona races and won both stages in the 2022 Daytona 500. His Toyota showed plenty of speed in Thursdays Duel race, but a pit road issue took him out of contention.

With retirement looming, theres a chance this is Truexs final start in the Daytona 500. He can complete his rsum with a victory.

To win: Harrison Burton (65/1, FanDuel)

Superspeedway racing is your best chance to cash in on a long-shot winner. We have to look deep on the odds board to find Burton.

Burton has done little to nothing in his two seasons in the Cup Series. His second career Cup Series start ended with him flipping on the backstretch in the Daytona 500.

The numbers dont look great, but hes worth a bet at 65/1.

Last year, Burton led laps in both Daytona races. He led the 500 with fewer than 15 laps to go before a late crash took him out of the race.

He nearly won his Duel race Thursday night but got left hanging by his Ford teammate Austin Cindric.

Burton is a Ford driver, and Fords always have speed at Daytona You shouldnt bet the house on him, but hes worth a small wager.

Daytona_500_predictions_Four_long_shot_picks_for_Great_American_Race Harrison Burton, driver of the No. 21 Motorcraft/DEX Imaging Ford, drives during practice for the NASCAR Cup Series Daytona 500. Getty Images## Top-five finish: Christopher Bell (+275, BetMGM)

We already talked about one Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota in Truex. Lets shift our focus to his much younger teammate in Bell.

Bells speedweeks got off to a great start, winning his Duel race Thursday. He ran near the front all night and passed teammate Denny Hamlin on the final lap.

I dont see Bell winning Daytona, but he typically runs near the front and scores a solid finish.

Across Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta, he has three top-five finishes.

Toyota showed a ton of speed in Thursdays races. If Bell can avoid the big wreck, he should have a good chance to score a top-five finish.

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Top-10 finish: Todd Gilliland (+350, DraftKings)

Youll have to scroll to the bottom of the odds board to find Gilliland, who is far from a top contender in the Cup Series, but he shouldnt have the worst odds to score a top-10 finish.

Gilliland has had bad luck at Daytona, failing to finish in four career starts. However, he has completed six races at Talladega and Atlanta.

Those six races feature finishes between seventh and 17th.

His first two starts at Daytona featured an average running position inside th top 15.

Gilliland just needs some luck in avoiding a wreck or a mechanical issue.

No matter his history, he shouldnt have +350 odds. This is also a good +EV bet, as the top betting sites have Gilliand top-10 around +300.

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