Baylor vs. Kansas prediction: College basketball odds, pick Saturday

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The Big 12 is college basketballs best conference.

The talent at the top and the depth of the league is wild.

As it stands, 10 of the conferences 14 teams rank in the top 40 of KenPoms ratings, with two more checking in as top-70 squads.

The Big 12 also has Houston, the top overall team in adjusted efficiency margin.

Among these squads are Baylor and Kansas, who face off in Lawrence on Saturday in a top-15 matchup.

Kansas is having a down year relative to Bill Self standards, sitting at 6-4 in conference play and coming off a loss against in-state rival Kansas State.

Meanwhile, the Bears are riding high behind the explosive shooting backcourt duo of JaKobe Walter and RayJ Dennis, sitting at 17-5 overall and 6-3 in Big 12 play following three straight wins.

Two of Baylors three losses came in overtime. The Bears might be slightly undervalued and due for positive close-game regression.

However, Saturday is a brutal situational spot and an even worse schematic matchup.

Baylor vs. Kansas prediction

(6 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Its time for Baylor to lose another game. The Big 12 is too harsh to run roughshod over for four straight wins.

The Bears are likely fat-and-happy after three consecutive, including two in the comfy Waco confines. They shot 43% from 3 across the three games, so some negative shooting regression is likely coming.

And its tough to shoot and win at Allen Fieldhouse.

Under Self, the Jayhawks are 146-127-6 against the spread (ATS) at Allen Fieldhouse, including 84-71-6 in conference play, a 55% clip generating a nearly 5% ROI for bettors.

Its even more challenging to beat Self and the Hawks when theyre in a bounce-back spot, as Kansas is 52-29-3 ATS following a loss under the Hall of Fame coachs tutelage, including 34-20-3 in Big 12 play, generating a 21% ROI.

Baylor_vs_Kansas_prediction_College_basketball_odds_pick_Saturday Baylor Bears guard Jayden Nunn. Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesThe Jayhawks are off an overtime loss to Kansas State, likely only losing because they shot 3-for-15 from deep (20%). Some more shots should fall with a more focused bounce-back effort.

From a schematic perspective, Baylor is a guard-led perimeter-based ball-screen offense. Unfortunately for the Bears, Kansas is a top-50 pick-and-roll defense nationally behind one of the nations best point-of-attack ball-screen defenders in Dajuan Harris.

Baylor wins games by making shots, as the Bears are shooting a nationwide-best 41% from 3. Kansas allows plenty of 3s, ranking 267th nationally in 3-point rate allowed (40%). But, as mentioned, I expect negative shooting regression on the road in a challenging letdown situational spot.

On the other end of the court, Kansas is an interior-based offense, utilizing cutters, roll-men,and post-up actions to get Hunter Dickinson, Kevin McCullar, and KJ Adams point-blank buckets the three combine for 29 of the Jayhawks 39 paint points per game, a top-10 mark nationally.

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Coach Scott Drew rose to fame behind the no-middle defense, a scheme that pushes ball-handlers toward the sideline and baseline while denying the paint at all costs.

Somehow, Baylor has devolved from an elite paint-denying defense to a miserable one. The Bears cant defend roll-men (0.93 PPP allowed, 13th percentile) or post sets (0.90 PPP allowed, 30th percentile).

Theyre allowing more than 30 paint points per game and rank 11th among Big 12 teams in 2-point shooting allowed during conference play (54%).

Theoretically, versatile and athletic center Yves Missi should be the lynchpin of a classically good Drew no-middle defense. Alas, hes been a mediocre interior defender, and Baylors rim is anyones for the taking.

And he’s not helped by his backcourt, as Dennis (0.84 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed, 16th percentile) and the other Baylor guards are mediocre perimeter defenders who can’t execute the no-middle on the ball.

Drew’s elite defenses featured bully-ball perimeter press defenders who forced opposing ball-handlers away from the middle of the court. There’s only so much he can do with this unit, even if they are elite shotmakers.

Will Scott Drew ever fix Baylor's no-middle? Getting wrecked pic.twitter.com/2AWLmsSrzw

— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) February 7, 2024Im betting Kansas obliterates Baylor at the rim while denying Baylors ball-screen actions in a classic bounce-back home victory over a Bears team ripe for regression.

And Im happy laying points to do it.

Baylor vs. Kansas pick

Kansas -6 (-110, BetRivers)

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