2024 MLB futures odds, predictions: Guardians, Twins among AL Central best bets
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The AL Central combined for just 358 wins as a division in 2023, which was 23 below any of the other five divisions.
The Twins are the second-largest favorite of any MLB team to win their division at -120.
Despite being such a heavy favorite to host a playoff series, they are still priced as long as +3000 to win the World Series.
That’s a statement from oddsmakers toward the weakness of the division, as the Twins still rate out low enough relative to other World Series contenders to be considered a 35/1 long shot despite such high chances of securing a spot.
Still, there are some arguments as to why the division could prove more competitive.
2024 AL Central odds, projections
| Team | 2023Record | O/U | Division Odds | PECOTA Projection | FanGraphs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | 87-75 | 85.5 | -120 | 89.0 | 84-78 |
| Tigers | 78-84 | 79.5 | +300 | 74.8 | 79-83 |
| Guardians | 76-86 | 77.5 | +300 | 83.3 | 80-82 |
| Royals | 56-106 | 73.5 | 12/1 | 70.6 | 76-86 |
| White Sox | 61-101 | 63.5 | 30/1 | 65.7 | 67-95 |
MLB over/under odds vis Bet365 Sportsbook## 2024 AL Central forecast
Kansas City Royals
The Royals brought in a number of big-league veterans in the offseason to help shore up their young roster.
They are hoping to have a mix that will take significant steps forward after winning only 65 and 56 games in the last two seasons, respectively.
Oddsmakers offer a total of 73.5 wins, but has Kansas City done enough to add 18 victories to last year’s total?
Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson and Austin Nola will help shore up the position player pool, and the Royals are counting on seeing progress from young infield star Bobby Witt Jr., who signed an 11-year, $288 million extension earlier this month, and Maikel Garcia.
K.C. acquired a number of experienced pitchers via both trade and free agency.
Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Will Smith, John Schreiber, Nick Anderson, Chris Stratton, Kyle Wright, Carlos Mateo, Ryan Brady and Cedar Espinal are all new to the roster.
Lugo and Wacha will likely join Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles to round out the starting rotation.
The Royals have certainly improved their roster, and that has been accurately accounted for by a betting total 18 wins above last season’s mark.
Best bet: Cole Ragans strikeout leader (60/1, Bet365)
Ragans is a fun long shot who is worth a look if you want a piece of the Royals. He gets a lot of favorable matchups inside the division and has the stuff to build upon his 11.18 K/9 of last season.
4Carl Ragans of the Royals is a budding star pitcher. Getty Images### Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are a heavy favorite to finish last in the division, though PECOTA and FanGraphs both agree that their betting total of 63.5 is a touch low.
They brought in Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen via free agency and acquired Mike Soroka and Jared Schuster via trade. Some combination of those four alongside Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech should make up the rotation to start the year.
The staff put up MLB’s sixth-worst xFIP (4.68) last season, and could potentially improve upon that mark slightly this season, at least until the likely trade of Cease.
The addition of a quality game-caller in Martin Maldonado behind the plate could also potentially benefit Sox pitchers. They also brought in Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong via free agency.
Best bet: Pass
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Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians feature a similar composition to what we have come to expect.
Though they lost rentals Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito, they will still have a strong starting rotation consisting of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams.
Emmanuel Clase will lead what should remain a strong bullpen, and Cleveland’s pitchers should be insulated well by what should be a better-than-average defense.
The team’s most notable change comes with Stephen Vogt taking over as manager, hoping to fill the very large shoes of Terry Francona, who won three AL Manager of the Year awards and guided Cleveland to four division titles and six playoff appearances in 11 seasons.
The greatest question mark for the Guardians will again lie with their ability to produce offense. Their team wRC+ of 92 ranked 22nd in the majors last season.
Jose Ramirez could provide a better slug rate than the .475 he put up in 2023, but there is not a lot of reason to expect drastic offensive improvement from the entire team.
Best bet: Guardians to win division (+400, FanDuel)
A potential storyline could be the Guardians looking to add some extra power to the lineup, since slightly improved offensive play could go a long way with a team that figures to prevent runs with pitching and defense.
4Cleveland is counting on a strong year from Shane Bieber. APFor that reason, Cleveland is a good candidate to target winning the division at a long price.
Detroit Tigers
Will the Tigers’ break through with their first winning season since 2016?
The upside is definitely there, but it will still be a tall task for a very young roster to progress that much and get to 80 wins.
They will need a lot to go right in terms of young pieces taking steps forward.
Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows and Colt Keith are all players who could have boom seasons without anybody batting an eye. The addition of veteran Mark Canha will also provide a proven big-league bat and clubhouse leader.
Their lineup hit to a wRC+ of 99 over the entirety of last season but improved considerably from August on with a mark of 99.
4Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers. Getty ImagesIf they are able to improve considerably on last season’s production at the plate, it is far from a lock that their starting rotation, which has a fairly wide range of outcomes, holds up.
Tarik Skubal has Cy Young-level upside and should be a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation. But what kind of support will he have behind him?
It’s only been two seasons since Jack Flaherty put up a 3.22 ERA, and he still holds a career mark of 3.75. His potential could still be high if he can stay healthy, but it’s hard to consider him a lock to provide a significant output of quality work.
Kenta Maeda could prove to be a useful addition, and prying him away from the Twins offers a boost inside the division.
Reese Olson and Matt Manning will round out the rotation, and the Tigers will be happy to see the 24- and 26-year-old duo post results above league average.
Best bet: Pass
Minnesota Twins
The Twins starting rotation offers a different look with Maeda and Sonny Gray both out of the picture, but it should remain a strength with the acquisitions of Chris Paddack and Anthony DeSclafani to work alongside Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober.
Lopez is the sixth-best betting favorite to win the AL Cy Young at +1100 odds, and Ryan is ranked inside the top 20 at +5000. They should help keep the Twins’ floor relatively high this season if healthy.
4Royce Lewis is the shiny new toy of the Twins’ roster. Getty ImagesMinnesota’s lineup has the potential to be dangerous when at full strength, but the major caveat on that will always come down to how many games they get out of Byron Buxton.
Royce Lewis looked excellent in a small sample last year, and has the potential to put together a monster campaign.
Trading away Jorge Polanco can be viewed as a vote of confidence toward Brooks Lee, who is considered a top-20 prospect in baseball and could make the team out of spring training.
Best bet: Eye on Twins World Series number (28/1, Caesars)
Backing the Twins to win the World Series at +3000 is a reasonable look, as they would be an annoying out if they get to the playoffs with Ryan and Lopez at the top of the rotation.
There are a lot of question marks in the division, however, and I think waiting to see if one of their rivals gets off to a hot start while they suffer through a relatively tough schedule is a good plan of attack.
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