Wild Card Weekend NFL Vivid Picks Plays: Best Player Props

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After a short hiatus, we are back for the playoffs! The kind folks at Vivid are once again boosting some of my favorite plays of the weekend, so you can get even better value on plays that I already think are strong. We are now getting 13x if these four legs hit!

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Each week, I’ll be posting a free article with a few of my favorite plays of the week, some reasons why, and what I would play each leg to. If you enjoy my reasoning and want 15+ official plays each week, snag yourself a betting subscription for as low as $5! Also, join our FREE Vivid Picks Discord.

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Wild Card Weekend Vivid Picks Plays

CJ Stroud over 10.5 rushing yards

Stroud has 10+ rushing yards in 8-of-15 starts but there a few points that make us both like the over. To start, quarterbacks tend to run more in the playoffs according to TJ Hernandez' study. We saw that play out last week where Stroud eclipsed a 10% scramble rate for the second time all season last week against the Colts where he ran for 20 yards against the Colts in a win-and-in playoff-esque situation. We saw Stroud do something similar in college. He didn't run much at all for two seasons until the College Football playoffs against Georgia, where he had to, and his receivers weren't getting open as easily. He ran 12 times in that game.

Circling back to this matchup top of this, the Browns play a top-5 rate of man coverage. Quarterbacks usually have more success rushing against man coverage because opposing defenses turn their backs. Stroud has also played significantly better against teams that skew zone-heavy. So with the Browns playing a reasonable amount of tough man defense, this adds further reasons for him to scramble. The last time these teams played Davis Mills even ran for 9 yards despite not even playing the whole game.

Joe Flacco over 37 pass attempts

Flacco and the Browns have been much more pass-heavy since Flacco took over as the starter. Flacco has 42+ pass attempts in four of his five starts this season. The only one he didn't, the Browns were facing the Jets, who Flacco threw for 300 yards on just 29 attempts, and they went up 27-7 in the second quarter. They were literally too good offensively and only ran 58 plays.

We already have a sample of Flacco against the Texans, who are largely a pass-funnel (good vs run, bad vs pass). Flacco completed 27 of 42 passes for 368 yards against the Texans last time in another dominant win where they were up 36-7 at one point. Flacco still got to 42 attempts as the game combined for more than 140 total plays. I expect significantly more pushback from the Texans in this spot, with CJ Stroud playing this time around. We have only seen Flacco in a negative game script once this season as the starter, and he had 44 pass attempts.

Tyler Bass under 7 kicking points

The weather here is expected to be horrendous. We are expecting 20+ MPH winds and gusts up to 50 MPH, plus snow and cold temperatures. This essentially takes long field goals off the table. Both sides figure to go run-heavy as is and mute total volume. At this number, the Bills would have to either kick two field goals and score two touchdowns for us to lose. I’m not sure they even attempt two field goals here, let alone make them. Most likely, you are looking at 1 field goal, which would mean you need four touchdowns to lose and 3 to push. That’s a big ask, given all of the circumstances.

A.J. Brown under 78.5 receiving yards

This is a pretty unique number because I don’t think there’s much of a chance that A.J. Brown is fully healthy. He got an MRI early in the week, and there was zero news about his status. If he plays, he is probably a decoy, which would make this a fantastic look.

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