NFL Championship Sunday player props, over/unders, best bets: Gus Edwards

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With only three football games left, there arent many spreads or totals left to beat.

So, its time to dig into the player prop market.

Heres my favorite prop for each Championship game.

Gus Edwards Over 41.5 Rush Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Im betting on the Ravens this weekend, and a big reason why is Baltimores rush offense against Kansas Citys front seven.

The Ravens lead the league in rush rate (51%), while ranking third in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate behind a front five that ranks sixth in Line Yards.

Only the Bears rushed for more regular-season yards than the Ravens 2,720.

Conversely, the Chiefs rank 27th in Rush Defense DVOA and 28th in EPA per Rush allowed behind a front four that ranks 25th in Line Yards.

The weak rush defense was on full display against Buffalo last week, with the Bills generating more than 180 rush yards at nearly five yards per carry with a 61% Success Rate.

Similarly, I expect Baltimore to bully Kansas Citys front seven with a rush-heavy game script, simultaneously moving the ball consistently and keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field.

That means plenty of carries for lead running back Gus Edwards.

Sure, Lamar Jackson is the engine of the Ravens attack, but Edwards still rushed for more than 800 yards on nearly 200 carries with a 54% Success Rate. Hes seen double-digit rushes in five straight games, and he should clear 41 yards with ease on that volume in an exquisite matchup.

Gus Edwards over 39.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)Another prop where I believe CLV is going to be very important. Gus is over this number in 13 of 18 games this season per @propsdotcash, averaging 47.2 yards per game.The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites in this game, and I like pic.twitter.com/Ie12b7SjEi

— Jacob Wayne (@wayne_sports_) January 22, 2024For example, Edwards finished with 40 rushing yards on 10 carries against Houston last week, but that was against a nasty defensive line that finished second in Line Yards and Rush Defense DVOA.

The Texans are a dominant rush defense, and Edwards could see a monster increase in efficiency against a considerable step down in competition.

I expect 10-15 carries at five-plus yards per carry, cruising past this line in a winning effort.

Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown (+225, Bet365)

Sam LaPorta was the breakout tight end of the 2023 season.

The rookie finished the regular season fifth among tight ends in receiving yards, while leading em all in touchdowns, likely because he saw the fourth-most red-zone targets (16) while converting the most scores (eight).

In these playoffs, LaPorta snagged a touchdown against the Rams while going off for nne receptions on 11 targets and 65 yards against the Bucs.

Whew, Sam LaPorta pic.twitter.com/dzuvtxXnG9

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) January 21, 2024Jared Goffs play drops off considerably on the road, but hes still a sniper in ideal conditions clear weather and a clean pocket.

Lucky for him, Sundays weather report looks great, with mid-60s temps and minimal wind.

Even luckier, the 49ers front seven was far from dominant this season. They were a poor rush defense that also failed to create much of a pass rush, ranking 18th in pressure rate (21%).

So, I expect Goff to play fine and hit his tight end plenty in this matchup.

NFL_Championship_Sunday_player_props__over_unders__best_bets__Gus_Edwards Sam LaPorta could have a strong day against the 49ers. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con/figcaption>Hell have to, considering the 49ers are ripe to exploit Detroits porous pass defense. The Lions rank 29th in Pro Football Focuss Coverage grades and bottom seven in both EPA per Dropback and Pass Success Rate allowed.

Kyle Shanahans weapons should run freely in the Detroit secondary, scoring at will and, more pertinent to this article, putting Detroit into a pass-heavy game script.

If the Lions trail big early, Ben Johnson will have to lean heavily on Goff and LaPorta to throw them back in the game. Thatd mean plenty more opportunities for LaPorta to find the endzone.

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The number is good, too, given his anytime touchdown odds closed around +160 the past few weeks.

Obviously, thats because the 49ers defense is rated much higher in the markets. However, their secondary trailed off in the second half, and we know they dont produce a prolific pass rush.

You can pass on the 49ers, the Lions will have to and LaPorta will see those all-important red-zone targets. Its the perfect storm.

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