NBA Player Prop Bets: LaMelo's Revenge

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Tonight's NBA slate features two great matchups with the Denver Nuggets facing the Boston Celtics while the Orlando Magic go up against the Philadelphia 76ers. There are a few other matchups that might not be exciting games to watch but are ripe for betting purposes.

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January 19th NBA Player Prop Bets

As with every slate in the NBA, the biggest edge we have in sports betting is news. It is critical to follow the news up to tip off with lots of potential opportunities opening up. Here are a couple of the plays I am looking at for tonight. Join the Discord for the most up-to-date information as the news unfolds.

LaMelo Ball (CHA) Over 26.5 Points (-115 BetMGM, -125 DK)

Lamelo Ball is back, and it is such a good thing to see him pick up right where he left off. In the three games since returning from injury, he's playing 27, 30, and 31 minutes scoring 28, 21, and 29 points in those games. Tonight, he gets a great matchup against the Spurs without Victor Wembanyama out for rest. In the previous matchup this season, Ball scored 28 points in only 27 minutes with the Hornets getting blown out with Wembanyama leading the way with 26. It was also Ball's first game back from injury. I expect without Wembanyama, and Ball having a few games under his belt, this game should be closer, and Ball gets over 30 minutes. However, even as he did in the previous matchup, still got over this number in only 27 minutes.

White not only has multiple paths to stay under this line, such as blowout/less minutes than usual, but really needs a 90th percentile outcome to go over this. He needs 36+ minutes, a high volume of threes, and needs to make them.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit.

Paolo Banchero (ORL) Under 26.5 Points (-110 BetMGM, -115 DK, -122 FD)

Paolo Banchero, on the season, is averaging 35 minutes and 22.9 points per game. The line is elevated in part because of Franz Wagner's absence, and three recent games where Banchero played 45, 41, and 45 minutes, scoring 35, 32, and 43 points in those games. I see this having way too much influence on this line here against the 76ers in a neutral pace matchup. In the past five games, Banchero has been under this line in all five, scoring 20 or less in three of those five.

Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

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