MLB win total predictions: Why Mets, Tigers will have big seasons

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Majo baseball analytics sites start to release preseason projections right around NFL Divisional Round weekend.

Its about when hardcore baseball fans get the itch for spring training.

Im more of a hardcore baseball gambler than a true baseball fan.

Regardless, now is about when I start digging into MLB win total bets, with all players required to report to camp a month from Thursday.

Here are my two favorites Ive found so far.

Mets Over 82.5 wins

Theres no reason to get overly excited about the Mets.

This team isnt a World Series contender or even a division contender.

The rotation is weak, the bullpen is uninspiring, and theres a lack of superstar power in the lineup sans Pete Alonso.

That said, we should be optimistic that the Mets will win more games than they lose in 2024.

Last year was an abject disaster. It cannot get any worse for the Mets.

Even from a luck standpoint.

The Mets won 75 games, but their Pythagorean win-loss record was 80-82 based purely on run differential.

That alone signals that positive regression looms in Queens.

And from a roster standpoint, the championship upside isnt there, but the floor is much higher.

At the minimum, the Mets roster is crystal clear.

MLB_win_total_predictions_Why_Mets_Tigers_will_have_big_seasons Francisco Alvarez should have another strong season for the Mets. Getty ImagesAlonso will start at first and be the power bat. Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo are two four-tofive-win players who should play 150 games toward the top of the order.

Theres nothing wrong with Jeff McNeil or Starling Marte.

Francisco Alvarez has a chokehold on the starting catching job, and Im excited to see another year from his bat (25 homers in 123 games in 2023).

Theres more mystery surrounding the pitching staff.

Still, I cant entirely hate on a rotation led by Kodai Senga a legit Cy Young candidate and a bullpen anchored by a healthy Edwin Diaz a legit Trevor Hoffman Award candidate.

Theres no more confusion and speculation surrounding All-Stars, Cy Young and MVP candidates littered across the roster.

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Theres no more worrying about Max Scherzer and Justin Verlanders age curve and injury potential.

Instead, theres a basic roster with plenty of depth and a clear hierarchy one that the FanGraphs ZiPS system projects with the 11th-most WAR among MLB teams, which would peg the Mets for around 85-90 wins.

The Mets won 101 games in 2022 and assembled a superstar-littered-but-thin-and-broken roster that we could sell high on in 2023.

But the market has overreacted to the Mets change in direction, and Im buying low on a team that should perform solidly.

Tigers Over 79.5 wins

The Tigers seemingly underperform every season, but I think theres legitimate hope at Comerica Park for 2024.

Theres less hope in the lineup, but plenty of Tigers have high upside.

Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter are three young hitters who started pulling the ball in the air more in the second half of last season, and it did wonders for Detroits lineup.

FanGraphs projects Mark Canha and Austin Meadows to both post an OPS+ over 120 in 2024.

Also, its worth mentioning that replacing Miguel Cabrera with a normal designated hitter situation is worth about two wins a season.

MLB_win_total_predictions_Why_Mets_Tigers_will_have_big_seasons Riley Greene. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters ConThe real hope comes in the pitching staff, where Tarik Skubal has transformed into a legitimate Cy Young candidate.

He was the best pitcher in baseball in the second half of 2023 and projects as a top-five starting pitcher in 2024.

Pair him with Kenta Maeda, Eduardo Rodriguez and several young mid-20s pitchers with legitimate upside, and the skys the limit.

Most importantly, Detroit won 79 games last year and finished second in the AL Central.

Because they compete in the worst division in baseball, the Tigers will be in the hunt for 162 games and likely wont sell heavily down the stretch, making an 80-win season far more likely.

Im buying into Detroits upside.

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