Divisional Round NFL Vivid Picks Plays: Best Player Props

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Wild Card Weekend was a fun one! I didn’t want to repeat the same word, but it truly was wild. The Texans, Packers, and Bucs all won as underdogs, while the Chiefs took care of business as favorites over Miami. Our Wild Card boost didn’t come through, as we had a win, loss, push, and void. In hindsight, that seems almost harder to do than winning all of them.

Thankfully, the kind people at Vivid have decided to boost a few more of my favorite plays again for the Divisional Round from 5.5x to 7x on this three-leg play.

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Each week, I’ll be posting a free article with a few of my favorite plays of the week, some reasons why, and what I would play each leg to. If you enjoy my reasoning and want 15+ official plays each week, snag yourself a betting subscription for as low as $5! Also, join our FREE Vivid Picks Discord.

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Divisional Round Vivid Picks Plays

Zay Flowers under 4.5 receptions

Flowers has been awesome down the stretch, but his splits with and without Mark Andrews are pretty stark.

With Andrews, he has a 22% target share (down from 28%) and an 18.6% target per route run (down from 22.6%). On top of this, there will likely be a reasonable amount of wind that could impact passing.

The more I handicap this game, the more I think Baltimore may struggle more than expected offensively with how Houston confused the Browns' offense last week in the second half with post-snap adjustments. The Texans have also deployed two high safety looks on over 60% of their defensive snaps. Against two-high looks, Zay Flowers only has a 16% target share and a 0.16 target per route run rate.

David Montgomery under 58.5 rushing yards

There are multiple outs for this to go under, but the primary one is the likely gameplan. This is because the Bucs are a massive pass funnel. I expect the Lions to react accordingly, just like they did in their earlier matchup. The Lions leaned into the pass earlier in the year, with a +13% pass rate over expectation against the Bucs when these teams met last. Montgomery was injured midway through the second quarter, and Jahmyr Gibbs didn't play at all, but even before Montgomery was injured, they still dropped back 12 times to just seven run plays. Montgomery had just 14 rushing yards on six carries. The Lions only finished with 20 total rushing attempts in a game they never trailed in and even had a two-score lead in the third quarter.

I fully expect Jahmyr Gibbs to out-snap Montgomery here as he did since both were healthy from Week 10 on. This is largely because I expect them to pass the ball a ton, which generally calls for more Gibbs. The counterargument would be that it will also require more pass pro since the Bucs blitz a lot, but the Lions trusted Gibbs a lot more down the stretch. A good example is the Vikings who, like Tampa, blitz a lot as well and play a ton of zone. Gibbs out-snapped him in both contests, while Montgomery only got 43% and 49% of the carries, including just 10 carries to Gibbs' 13 the last time they played the Vikings, even in a 30-20 win. Since these teams last met you could argue the Bucs are an even bigger pass funnel, with Vita Vea back after missing Week 14, the Bucs rank 1st in DVOA and 2nd in rushing success rate. Even if the Lions do try and run it, I don't expect them to stick with it as they likely won't be very efficient with it.

Baker Mayfield over 254.5 passing yards

This Lions pass defense has been downright bad since their Week 9 bye. They are allowing 299 passing yards per game, rank dead last in EPA per play, and are 30th in passing success rate allowed. During that span, only Justin Fields (2x) and Russell Wilson weren’t able to hit 260+ passing yards, with multiple passers going over 300 and Winston and Carr combining for over 260.

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