Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction: Kansas City’s win over Bills brings bad news for bettors
The Kansas City Chiefs own the Buffalo Bills, but is that somehow a bad omen?
Oddly enough, no team that has beaten the Josh Allen-led Bills in the playoffs has gone on to win its next game (0-4).
That includes the Chiefs in each of their previous two postseason wins against Allen’s Bills.
The Texans beat Allen in his fist playoff game in the 2019 season, only to lose the next game against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs then eliminated the Bills each of the next two seasons, only to fall to the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl in the 2020 season and the Bengals in the AFC Championship game in the 2021 season, respectively.
The Bengals ousted the Bills in the AFC divisional round last year before falling the next week to the Chiefs.
Oddsmakers are projecting this trend to continue for a fifth straight season as Kansas City is a 3.5-point underdog on BetMGM Sportsbook against the Ravens despite quarterback Patrick Mahomes being 13-3 straight-up in his playoff career.
Two of those three losses came at the hand of the now-retired Tom Brady and the other vs. Joe Burrow.
The fist loss to Brady occurred in Kansas City against the Patriots, while the other was in the Super Bowl when the Chiefs met the Buccaneers.
Brady won his seventh Super Bowl that night. 31-9.
No team has won their next playoff game after beating Josh Allen…Ravens ML ?(h/t @justinbtw_) pic.twitter.com/iOpt0s0JWj
— br_betting (@br_betting) January 23, 2024A few other betting trends to be aware of ahead of the Chiefs vs. Ravens conference championship game.
- Kansas City is 6-2 on the road this year and 5-3 against the spread with +20 point differential away from Arrowhead.
- The total points opened at 45.5 before quickly being bet down to 44.5 by sharp movers.
- Chiefs games have gone under in four of their last five games and 12 of 17 on the season.
- Baltimore games are more evenly split; unders went nine for 17 on the season.
Many had criticized Lamar Jackson’s struggles in the playoffs as a reason for pessimism in regards to the teams Super Bowl prospects.
Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs will need to be superman again Sunday. Getty Images## Betting on the NFL?
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But that was mostly put to bed as Jackson was the first quarterback in NFL playoff history to run for 100 yards with two touchdowns and pass for 100 yards with two passing touchdowns, while also having a passer rating of more than 100 in the win over the Texans.
Sunday’s contest against the Chiefs should be fascinating as Jackson, who had a contract dispute to open the season, looks to put his stamp on the season.
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