Bucks vs. Pacers prediction: NBA odds, picks, best bet in expected shootout

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The Pacers will try to extend their winning streak to five games when they host the Bucks in the second leg of a home-and-home series.

Indiana clinched the season series after improving to 3-1 with a 122-113 road victory over Milwaukee on New Year’s Day.

Wednesdays matchup marks the fifth and final regular-season meeting between the two teams after also facing one another in the NBAs inaugural In-Season Tournament.

Hence, its safe to say that these teams are very familiar with one another.

Theres also the controversy surrounding the whereabouts of the game ball in Milwaukees lone win against Indiana this season.

Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo felt the Pacers showed poor sportsmanship in retreating to their locker room with the game ball after he scored a franchise- and career-high 64 points.

This rematch is one of those spots where youd expect both teams to split this home-and-home series. However, this Pacers team seems to match up well with the Bucks.

As a result, Ill look to bypass the point spread and target a play on the total.

Milwaukee Bucks analysis

Its mind-blowing that one-third of Milwaukees nine losses this season have come against Indiana.

Outside of Antetokounmpo, the Bucks havent gotten as much production from its other players.

Antetokounmpo has averaged 46.3 points in the four meetings while outscoring Milwaukees bench in each of those games.

And although the Bucks bench ranks 18th in scoring (32.6 points per game), this is still a team thats currently the second seed in the Eastern Conference with 24 wins.

Whats been most surprising about this series is that the Bucks are getting outrebounded by the Pacers.

Bucks_vs_Pacers_prediction_NBA_odds_picks_best_bet_in_expected_shootout Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tyrese Haliburton have had some words this year. Getty ImagesPer TeamRankings, Milwaukee ranks seventh in rebounds (53.3 per game), while Indiana sits 27th (48.7 per game).

Yet, its Indiana that has a 188-175 rebounding edge.

Basketball purists often say that rebounding is another measure of effort. Have the Bucks simply been underestimating this Pacers team?

Given that these teams will play one another for a second time in three days, Id have to think well see the intensity ratchet up even higher.

Indiana Pacers analysis

Indiana hasnt been known for its defense this season. It ranks 26th in efficiency, allowing 116.2 points per 100 possessions. However, this is an opportunistic team that looks to create turnovers.

The Pacers are tied for 12th in opponent turnovers, forcing 14.2 per game. Creating these turnovers gives Indiana an edge with its transition game. Per NBA.com, it ranks third in points off turnovers with 18.4 per game.

Indiana point guard Tyrese Haliburton knows precisely where to go with the ball. He leads the league in assists with 12.7 per game. Haliburton is a big reason why the Pacers rank second in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.29 per game).

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Its worth noting that Indianas only loss to Milwaukee this season was when it also lost the turnover battle.

Haliburtons value to the Pacers is immeasurable. Everything runs through the Iowa State product, as he usually puts his teammates in prime scoring situations.

According to ShotQuality.com, Indiana ranks third in opportunities to finish at the rim (39%). The Bucks will still need to be mindful of the Pacers inside-outside game.

Indiana ranks fifth in 3-point field goals with 14.5 per gae.

Bucks vs. Pacers prediction

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These two teams like to get up and down the court. Indiana leads the league with 107 possessions per game, while Milwaukee ranks fourth, averaging 106.1.

As a result, both teams tend to have high totals, given that the over is a combined 42-23 in their games. However, the total is 7-3 to the under in Indianas last 10 games.

I looked at that 10-game stretch and found that Indianas possession average dropped to 101.4. If the Pacers are making a concerted effort to control the tempo more, their totals might warrant some adjustment.

After running the numbers, my model projects a total closer to 248.5, giving a significant edge, with BetMGM offering a total of 258.5.

Pick: Under 258.5 (BetMGM)

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