Australian Open prediction, odds: Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka

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Coco Gauff faced — and passed — her first real test of the Australian Open on Monday evening.

The 19-year-old American fell behind Marta Kostyuk early in the first set and then dropped the second frame before wrestling control of the match in the decider.

It was the first time in the tournament Gauff dropped a set.

The win earned Gauff her first trip to the Australian Open semifinals.

She’ll meet defending champion Aryna Sabalenka on Thursday morning (3:30 a.m. ET).Sabalenka is a -215 favorite at FanDuel at the time of writing.

Australian Open: Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka prediction

It goes without saying, but both Sabalenka and Gauff come into their semifinal encounter in tip-top form.

Gauff is 10-0 to start 2024 and has dropped just two sets — one in the finals in Auckland to Elina Svitolina and one to Kostyuk — so far this season.

The key to Gauff’s success has been her elite first serve.

Australian_Open_prediction_odds_Coco_Gauff_vs_Aryna_Sabalenka Belarus’ Aryna Sabalenka reacts after a point against Czech Republic’s Barbora Krejcikova during their women’s singles quarterfinal match on day 10 of the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne on Jan. 23, 2024. AFP via Getty ImagesAlthough she was more erratic in her victory over Kostyuk and was broken seven times, for the most part Gauff has been in total control when she gets play started.

She won more than 70% of her first-serve points in each of her first nine matches in 2024 and faced just 13 break points in her first four matches in Melbourne.

Gauff will need to re-find that serving form against Sabalenka, who is one of a few players on the WTA Tour with a more powerful serve than the American star.

Sabalenka has won 80.8% of her service games over the last 52 weeks and has proven in the past that when she can keep her cool, there are few, if any, players that can keep up with her.

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Her mental game has come under question, though, as she’s “only” won one Grand Slam and been to two finals despite seven trips to the final four.

Sabalenka should be boosted by the fact that her only title did come here and she clearly fancies this surface, as she’s yet to drop a set and has only faced eight break points across five matches in Melbourne.

While Sabalenka deserves to be favored based on her experience and form in Australia, these odds do seem a bit wide.

Tennis Abstract’s ELO model actually makes Gauff the favorite and while that may be a bit of a stretch, it does tell you that this match is closer to a coin flip than this price suggests.

The Bet: Gauff (+182, FanDuel)

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