Patriots vs. Broncos prediction: NFL Week 16 odds, picks, best bets
The holiday season is upon us, and though Sunday Night Football is not exactly going to be the best gift you receive this holiday season, its still football and an excuse to get away from the family conversation about your job or dating life.
All jokes aside, the Patriots head to Mile High for a bout with the playoff-hungry Broncos, who enter as 7.5-point favorites.
This will likely be Bill Belichicks final prime-time game as head coach of the Patriots.
Given the large spread and with that in mind, I do like the Patriots to keep things close, as weve seen over the past couple of weeks a slight change with this team.
The Pats took down Pittsburgh, then went toe-to-toe with Kansas City until a third-quarter meltdown, losing by 10.
Though the injury report leaves plenty of Sunday props unavailable, well have more lines available as kickoff nears.
There is a certain position group in New England that I believe, based on recent history and the matchup itself, will be relied on heavily to move the football.
And thats none other than the tight ends.
Hunter Henry was downgraded to out after missing practice Wednesday and Thursday, before returning in limited capacity the following day.
Next in line is Mike Gesicki, who slides in as the primary beneficiary as TE1.
Look at how Henry has performed with Bailey Zappe, who is now comfortable as the teams starter.
Over the past two weeks, hes hauled in 10 receptions for 106 yards and three touchdowns. Hes the teams second-leading receiver this season.
Gesicki has been targeted four times in that span, too.
Zappe is no stranger to using his safety valve. Ezekiel Elliott has also been used in the short game, but he is also an elite pass blocker.
Mike Gesicki of the Patriots. Getty ImagesThat leaves more opportunities for the tight ends to take advantage.
This is a great matchup against a Broncos defense that struggles against the tight end position.
In fact, theyre dead last in DVOA.
Just last week Sam LaPorta caught three touchdowns and racked up 56 yards.
Denver has allowed 50-plus receiving yards to opposing tight ends in each of the past seven weeks, and 10 of their past 11.
Linebacker Alex Singleton has a Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 41.9, and Josey Jewell (63.5) is not much better.
We all know about Pat Surtain II on the outside, but the Broncos run zone coverage about 76 percent of the time, and that leads to a funnel of targets toward the middle of the field.
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Denver is also dead last in DVOA against short passes, which is Zappes preference hence his affinity for tight ends.
On average, Henrys line ends up in the mid-to-high 20s.
In a game where New England is over a touchdown underdog, it sets up to be the perfect game script for more passing especially with Rhamondre Stevenson out yet again.
I would imagine Gesicki opens in the mid-to-high teens.
Mike Gesicki #88 and Hunter Henry #85 of the New England Patriots celebrate after Henry’s receiving touchdown during the second quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium. Getty ImagesGesicki is a more than viable backup. He proved it in Miami and has had his moments since joining New England despite being buried down the depth chart.
You need to attack Denver where theyre weakest, and thats defending the tight end.
This Patriots offense isnt glamorous, but they should be able to move the football behind Gesicki.
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